31
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19

The impact of EU intervention on political parties’ politicisation of Europe following the financial crisis

Abstract

This article examines the effect of the financial crisis and economic intervention by the European Union on political parties’ politicisation of the EU within national elections. Data from the Manifesto Project for elections between 2002 and 2017 in 12 Eurozone countries is used to assess how the crisis and intervention altered the saliency, position and clarity of parties’ EU policies. The analysis shows that the crisis only led to an increase in EU saliency in those states not subjected to intervention whilst intervention is actually associated with a decrease in the saliency of the EU. In terms of increasing Euroscepticism, intervention appears to exhibit a greater effect than the crisis although the results display marked asymmetry between different parties on the left and right. The same is observed to be the case for the level of blurring that parties are engaged in to mask their EU positions. The implications of the findings suggest that economic intervention within the EU has negatively impacted democracy in intervened-in member states by reducing the manoeuvrability of parties to provide voters with clear choices on the direction of European integration.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402382.2019.1641779

Annunci
31
Ago
19

Personality Traits and the Sense of Civic Duty

Abstract

Recently, a burgeoning literature has developed around the idea that personality traits influence political attitudes and orientations. There has also been increasing recognition that orientations like the sense of civic duty exert a powerful influence on voting behavior. Despite the theoretical and empirical importance of civic duty, little research has investigated its antecedents. This article turns to individual personality traits as a potential explanation for why some people feel a stronger sense of civic duty than others. The analysis shows that a number of the Big Five traits shape an individual’s sense of civic duty, with Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, and Openness having statistically significant (p < .05) effects. The effects of personality traits rival and, in some cases, exceed the influence of variables that have typically been used to explain the sense of duty, including income. In the end, this study provides new evidence that personality traits influence broad orientations toward political life.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1532673X13484172?icid=int.sj-abstract.similar-articles.3

31
Ago
19

Correlation not Causation: The Relationship between Personality Traits and Political Ideologies

Abstract

The assumption in the personality and politics literature is that a person’s personality motivates them to develop certain political attitudes later in life. This assumption is founded on the simple correlation between the two constructs and the observation that personality traits are genetically influenced and develop in infancy, whereas political preferences develop later in life. Work in psychology, behavioral genetics, and recently political science, however, has demonstrated that political preferences also develop in childhood and are equally influenced by genetic factors. These findings cast doubt on the assumed causal relationship between personality and politics. Here we test the causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes using a direction of causation structural model on a genetically informative sample. The results suggest that personality traits do not cause people to develop political attitudes; rather, the correlation between the two is a function of an innate common underlying genetic factor.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809096/

24
Ago
19

BRA: An Algorithm for Simulating Bounded Rational Agents

Abstract: This paper describes a simulation approach for modelling decision-making processes under incomplete and imperfect information in Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE). The main idea is to represent decision-making in a model-free framework that can be applied to a larger set of simulation problems, not just the domain modelled. The method translates some basic sociopsychological concepts from the bounded rationality and learning literature into an executable algorithm. In a simple example, the algorithm is applied in the domain of behavioural game theory, illustrating how the algorithm can be used to reproduce observed patterns of human behaviour. KeywordsAgent based modelling–Bounded rationality–Reinforcement learning.

#Agent_based #Computational_Economics #Bounded_Rational

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225848580_BRA_An_Algorithm_for_Simulating_Bounded_Rational_Agents

31
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19

Simulating Acculturation Dynamics Between Migrants and Locals in Relation to Network Formation

Abstract

International migration implies the coexistence of different ethnic and cultural groups in the receiving country. The refugee crisis of 2015 has resulted in critical levels of opinion polarization on the question of whether to welcome migrants causing clashes in receiving countries. This scenario emphasizes the need to better understand the dynamics of mutual adaptation between locals and migrants and the conditions that favor successful integration. Agent-based simulations can help achieve this goal. In this work, we introduce our model MigrAgent and our preliminary results. The model synthesizes the dynamics of migration intake and postmigration adaptation. It explores the different acculturation outcomes that can emerge from the mutual adaptation of a migrant population and a local population depending on their degree of tolerance. With parameter sweeping, we detect how different acculturation strategies can coexist in a society and in different degrees among various subgroups. The results show higher polarization effects between a local population and a migrant population for fast intake conditions. When migrant intake is slow, transitory conditions between acculturation outcomes emerge for subgroups, for example, from assimilation to integration for liberal migrants and from marginalization to separation for conservative migrants. Relative group sizes due to speed of intake cause counterintuitive scenarios such as the separation of liberal locals. We qualitatively compare the processes of our model with the German portion sample of the survey “Causes and Consequences of Socio-Cultural Integration Processes Among New Immigrants in Europe,” finding preliminary confirmation of our assumptions and results.

Rocco PaolilloWander Jager

Keywords acculturationmigrationtolerancepolarizationagent-based simulation

31
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19

Best reply structure and equilibrium convergence in generic games

Abstract

Game theory is widely used to model interacting biological and social systems. In some situations, players may converge to an equilibrium, e.g., a Nash equilibrium, but in other situations their strategic dynamics oscillate endogenously. If the system is not designed to encourage convergence, which of these two behaviors can we expect a priori? To address this question, we follow an approach that is popular in theoretical ecology to study the stability of ecosystems: We generate payoff matrices at random, subject to constraints that may represent properties of real-world games. We show that best reply cycles, basic topological structures in games, predict nonconvergence of six well-known learning algorithms that are used in biology or have support from experiments with human players. Best reply cycles are dominant in complicated and competitive games, indicating that in this case equilibrium is typically an unrealistic assumption, and one must explicitly model the dynamics of learning.
Marco Pangallo1,2,*, Torsten Heinrich1,2,3 and J. Doyne Farmer1,2,4,5

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/2/eaat1328?fbclid=IwAR2H7P660JrThTBPcmPq_R01ewkuXQSUeAt8T47TB5ijB9FxgJYLvFulEfU

31
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19

Machine learning and behavioral economics for personalized choice architecture

Emir Hrnjic and Nikodem Tomczak

Abstract: Behavioral economics changed the way we think about market participants and revolutionized policy-making by introducing the concept of choice architecture. However, even though effective on the level of a population, interventions from behavioral economics, nudges, are often characterized by weak generalisation as they struggle on the level of individuals. Recent developments in data science, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have shown ability to alleviate some of the problems of weak generalisation by providing tools and methods that result in models with stronger predictive power. This paper aims to describe how ML and AI can work with behavioral economics to support and augment decision-making and inform policy decisions by designing personalized interventions, assuming that enough personalized traits and psychological variables can be sampled.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.02100.pdf




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