Archivio per 17 dicembre 2011

17
Dic
11

Misleading comparisions of probabilities | Decision Science News

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Stanislas Dehaene and colleagues surveyed Mundurucu participants (in the Amazon) and Western participants (in the USA) on where they felts numbers lie on a scale from from 10-100. When expressing changes in probabilities, it makes us nervous that people can play games. They can choose between small numbers (here catch rates) and large numbers (drop rates) to play up or play down a point. This post discusses how this can happen whether one uses relative risk calculations or simply provides before and after numbers. This is one reason we are fans of providing absolute changes in probability. Going from Coach A to Coach B, catches decreased 8 percentage points, which is to say drops increased by 8 percentage points. With this formulation, no matter how the thing is expressed, the only thing the forgetful can get wrong is the sign.
Via www.decisionsciencenews.com

Annunci
17
Dic
11

BDRM 2012 | Decision Science News

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The 2012 Behavioral Decision Research in Management Conference will be held in Boulder, Colorado…
Via www.decisionsciencenews.com

17
Dic
11

Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
The inductive-reasoning system I have described above consists of a multitude of “elements” in the form of belief-models or hypotheses that adapt to the aggregate environment they jointly create. Thus it qualifies as an adaptive complex system. After some initial learning time, the hypotheses or mental models in use are mutually co-adapted. Thus we can think of a consistent set of mental models as a set of hypotheses that work well with each other under some criterion–that have a high degree of mutual adaptedness. Sometimes there is a unique such set, it corresponds to a standard rational expectations equilibrium, and beliefs gravitate into it. More often there is a high, possibly very high, multiplicity of such sets. In this case we might expect inductive reasoning systems in the economy–whether in stock-market speculating, in negotiating, in poker games, in oligopoly pricing, in positioning products in the market–to cycle through or temporarily lock into psychological patterns that may be non-recurrent, path-dependent, and increasingly complicated. The possibilities are rich.
Via tuvalu.santafe.edu

17
Dic
11

Bounded Rationality and Law | Welcome!

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Bounded rationality is the study of the mental shortcuts (i.e., heuristics) that people with limited time, knowledge, or cognitive power use to make decisions; the structure of the environment in which people make decisions; and the match between the two. Forensic psychology is a research endeavour that examines aspects of human behaviour as it relates to law and the legal system. For research purposes, we view the legal system as a series of consequential decisions made by offenders, victims, witnesses, police officers, lawyers, judges, jurors, probation officers, parole officers, and so on. The research being conducted in this lab integrates the two areas of research by investigating
The evidence that legal agents use simple heuristics to make decisions,
The heuristic mechanisms that are used to search for information or alternatives, stop that search, and make a decision,
When and why heuristics work well (i.e., ecological rationality) and
Conditions under which simple heuristics are used to make decisions
Via www.mun.ca




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