Archivio per 26 dicembre 2011

26
Dic
11

The Marvels And The Flaws Of Intuitive Thinking Edge Master Class 2011 | Conversation | Edge

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

DANIEL KAHNEMAN – The power of settings, the power of priming, and the power of unconscious thinking, all of those are a major change in psychology. I can’t think of a bigger change in my lifetime. You were asking what’s exciting? That’s exciting, to me.
Via edge.org

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26
Dic
11

Heuristic optimisation in economics and econometrics | vox – Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Economics has a long tradition of relying on quantitative models for both presenting its theory and testing it empirically. In fact, Joseph Schumpeter, in the first edition of Econometrica in 1933, described economics as the most quantitative of all sciences. Optimisation is an inherent part of this methodology. In theoretical models, agents are presented as utility maximisers and firms try to maximise profit or to minimise cost. Selecting and estimating models for given data sets amounts to optimisation as well – sums of squares are minimised and likelihoods are maximised so routinely today that often researchers may not even be aware that fitting a model means optimising it.
When building models, economists are often limited by the fact that the model later needs to be solved, ideally in a closed-form. Some researchers have abandoned relying on “representative agents” and opted for more complex models, relying on computer simulations to obtain results. Such agent-based models, if they are to be a viable alternative to more standard approaches, need to be “tuned” such that the results from these models coincide with empirical facts. This, again, is an estimation – and hence optimisation – problem. In this column, we will primarily discuss estimation problems in econometrics, but the problem is much more general and applies to many areas in economics (see Winker (2001), chapter 2).
Via voxeu.org

26
Dic
11

Heuristics and the law

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

In recent decades, the economists’ concept of rational choice has dominated legal reasoning. And yet, in practical terms, neither the lawbreakers the law addresses nor officers of the law behave as the hyperrational beings postulated by rational choice. Critics of rational choice and believers in “fast and frugal heuristics” propose another approach: using certain formulations or general principles (heuristics) to help navigate in an environment that is not a well-ordered setting with an occasional disturbance, as described in the language of rational choice, but instead is fundamentally uncertain or characterized by an unmanageable degree of complexity. This is the intuition behind behavioral law and economics. In Heuristics and the Law, experts in law, psychology, and economics explore the conceptual and practical power of the heuristics approach in law. They discuss legal theory; modeling and predicting the problems the law purports to solve; the process of making law, in the legislature or in the courtroom; the application of existing law in the courts, particularly regarding the law of evidence; and implementation of the law and the impact of law on behavior.
Via books.google.it




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