Archivio per gennaio 2012

31
Gen
12

Gut Feelings – The Intelligence of the Unconscious by Gerd Gigerenzer

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

http://enrichedyou.com/gigerenzer-gut-feelings/ Cheat sheet Summary… ” Gerd Gigerenzer in his book Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious attempts to answer the question on how intuition works but more importantly when you should trust your gut instincts and when they are just plain wrong. He consider the neural processes that has let mankind develop “rules of thumb” or “heuristics” to better make decisions. Which heuristics help us make better decisions about amateurs beating the stock-market, catching a fly ball, or choose a lover?
What Gerd Gigerenzer provides is the science and theory which underpins that absolute must read blink book by Malcolm Gladwell.In Gigerenzer Gut Feelings he highlights a key point that instinctual decisions are not impulsive but have brain based rules, that although seemingly simple are surprising accurate. Recent research that has come to light has supported his findings that reason may not be the best decision making tool, but reason should instead be used to check whether we have made the correct intuitive decision.
Gigerenzer has trained U.S. federal judges, German physicians, and top managers in decision making and understanding risks and uncertainties.
Via www.youtube.com

31
Gen
12

Scelte e razionalità nei modelli economici: un’analisi multidisciplinare

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
This paper argues critically the issue of choices and rationality in economic models through a multidisciplinary analysis. First, the analysis aims at highlight the scientific contributions of psychology in economics, since psychology and the related approach of cognitive economics has made more complex and problematic the analysis of choices of the standard neoclassical economics. The cognitive approach in economics has pointed out the complexity of the choice process and the unsolved relationship between economic and psychological dimensions of such a process, showing the biases and the limits of rationality. Second, the analysis focuses on the use of evolutionary concepts in economic theory. Economic models, which are consistent with an evolutionary approach, have necessarily to be very different from those of standard economics. In particular, this paper examines the works of Alfred Marshall, since he is the first major economist to refer explicitly to biology for explaining economic evolution. The purpose of the analysis is to reveal the conditions required to succeed in building a real evolutionary model. A major condition, which is found in Marshall models, particularly in his Principles of Economics, is the understanding and the integration of darwinian philosophical matrix in his general economic approach. The paper, therefore, aims at demonstrating that economics has not been historically a discipline homogenously aligned to a single, undifferentiated form of thought, locked into the idea of perfect rationality, but that is a discipline that enriched and still enriches itself by contributions and contaminations from other disciplines.
Via mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

31
Gen
12

Bounded’Rationality’and’Consumer’Research:’ Lessons’From’a’Study’of’Choices’of’Mobile’Phone’Service’Contracts

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
This paper draws lessons about the allocation of resources to research aimed at studying the efficiency of consumer decision making in complex, fast e_moving markets. These lessons emerged during research involving a large sample
survey of choices of mobile phone service plans by Australian consumers. In this kind of market, researchers will run into difficulties in collecting and evaluating data, and market conditions will not stand still while they address these problems. It is even possible that what seems suboptimal to researchers will sometimes actually be highly appropriate choice for consumers. The paper concludes by advocating the use of simpler methods to approximate the prevalence of decision making inefficiency—such as collaborative work with owners of websites that try to assist consumers—as knowledge of optimal choices is not essential for understanding the sources of inefficiency or devisingmethods by which better choices might be made.
Via www.uq.edu.au

28
Gen
12

Moral Satisficing: Rethinking Moral Behavior as Bounded Rationality

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

(2010) Gigerenzer. Topics in Cognitive Science. Read by researchers in: 60% Psychology, 8% Business Administration. What is the nature of moral behavior? According to the study of bounded rationality, it results not from character traits or rational deliberation alone, but from the interplay between mind and environ- ment. In this view, moral behavior is based on pragmatic social heuristics rather than moral rules or maximization principles. These social heuristics are not good or bad per se, but solely in relation to the environments in which they are used. This has methodological implications for the study of mor- ality: Behavior needs to be studied in social groups as well as in isolation, in natural environments as well as in labs. It also has implications for moral policy: Only by accepting the fact that behavior is a function of both mind and environmental structures can realistic prescriptive means of achieving moral goals be developed.
Via www.mendeley.com

28
Gen
12

gerd gigerenzer – when are heuristics superior

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Against popular belief, there are instances where simple heuristics are not only faster and easier to apply, but they can reliably outperform more complex and exhaustive algorithms. The reason for this is uncertainty of natural environments and the decreased variability of heuristics in response to complex worlds.
Via www.youtube.com

28
Gen
12

gerd gigerenzer – selection of heuristics

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Sometimes, more than one heuristic could be applied in a given situation. In these cases a decision has to be made which heuristic to go with. Dr. GIgerenzer explains how these conflicts are resolved.
Via www.youtube.com

28
Gen
12

Consumer behavioural biases in competition: A survey – Huck, Ste

Via Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
Huck, Ste en and Zhou, Jidong – Most traditional analyses of competition focus on the supply side. They study how industries will be organised under different informational and technological assumptions. Consumers feed into these models simply in the form of well-ehaved demand functions. This is different in the literature surveyed here. In these models consumers have a presence and their decision rules are modelled in detail.
Consumers’ behaviour may deviate from the orthodox ideal of perfect rationality in many different ways. Consumers may suffer from cognitive limitations that make the comparison of products and prices harder or they may be prone to a wide range of behavioural biases: They might be overoptimistic about the future or overconfident in their ability to avoid accidents. They might be overly afraid to lose compared to the status quo and sometimes their preferences might change from one day to the next
Via mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de




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