Archivio per 29 aprile 2012

29
Apr
12

The ancient practice of Chinese social networking: Guanxi and social network theory

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The Chinese concept of Guanxi is a form of social network theory that defines one’s place in the social structure and provides security, trust and a prescribed role. This essay argues that Eastern Guanxi and recently popularized Western Social Network Theory (SNT) overlap in three ways.
First, both imply that information is essential to sustain a social system by prescribing a set of behaviors that regulate the flow of information and that define insider and outsider relationships (Guanxi), or strong ties and weak ties (SNT). Second, both offer a theory of change coupled with an ethic of sustainability where order is created by trust as a local, relative phenomena. Finally, both Guanxi and SNT characterize randomness and order as essential, though Guanxi favors certainty and trust over chaos. The implications of the comparison undermine the claims of ‘new-ness’ and primacy often associated with recent SNT literature. Furthermore, they suggest that Western network theorists can gain significantinsight from traditional Eastern thought.

See on emergentpublications.com

29
Apr
12

The manipulation of cognitive biases and heuristics in the creation of commitment : Schwenk, Charles R : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Inducing commitment: is an important concern for executives attempting to implement strategies. In this paper, the author develops a model of the process by which executives can encourage commitment in contributors through the promotion of specific cognitive heuristics and biases. Three specific hypotheses from this model are tested within Staw’s (1981) escalating commitment framework.

See on archive.org

29
Apr
12

Laurie Santos: A monkey economy as irrational as ours | Video on TED.com

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

TED Talks Laurie Santos looks for the roots of human irrationality by watching the way our primate relatives make decisions. A clever series of experiments in “monkeynomics” shows that some of the silly choices we make, monkeys make too.

See on www.ted.com

29
Apr
12

Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self | Video on TED.com

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

TED Talks Every day, we make decisions that have good or bad consequences for our future selves. (Can I skip flossing just this one time?

See on www.ted.com

29
Apr
12

Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self : TED.com : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Every day, we make decisions that have good or bad consequences for our future selves. (Can I skip flossing just this one time?) Daniel Goldstein makes tools…

See on archive.org

29
Apr
12

Behavioral economics : Mullainathan, Sendhil : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Abstract: Behavioral Economics is the combination of psychology and economics that investigates what
happens in markets in which some of the agents display human limitations and complications. We begin with a preliminary question about relevance. Does some combination of market forces, learning and evolution render these human qualities irrelevant? No. Because of limits of arbitrage less than perfect agents survive and influence market outcomes. We then discuss three important ways in which humans deviate from the standard economic model. Bounded rationality reflects the limited cognitive abilities that constrain human problem solving. Bounded willpower captures the fact that people sometimes make choices that are not in their long-run interest. Bounded self-interest incorporates the comforting fact that humans are often willing to sacrifice their own interests to help others. We then illustrate how these concepts can be applied in two settings: finance and savings. Financial markets have greater arbitrage opportunities than other markets, so behavioral factors might be thought to be less important here, but we show that even here the limits of arbitrage create anomalies that the psychology of decision making helps explain. Since saving for retirement requires both complex calculations and willpower, behavioral factors
are essential elements of any complete descriptive theory. 

See on archive.org

29
Apr
12

EconTalk: Rubinstein on Game Theory and Behavioral Economics : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Ariel Rubinstein of Tel Aviv University and New York University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the state of game theory and behavioral economics, two of the most influential areas of economics in recent years. Drawing on his Afterword for the 60th anniversary edition of Von Neumann and Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Rubinstein argues that game theory’s successes have been quite limited. Rubinstein, himself a game theorist, argues that game theory is unable to yield testable predictions or solutions to public policy problems. He argues that game theorists have a natural incentive to exaggerate its usefulness. In the area of behavioral economics, Rubinstein argues that the experimental results (which often draw on game theory) are too often done in ways that are not rigorous. The conversation concludes with a plea for honesty about what economics can and cannot do.

See on archive.org

29
Apr
12

Modeling Bounded Rationality : Ariel Rubinstein : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

A text book on models of bounded rationality. The series of lectures that constitute the chapters in this book concerns modeling bounded rationality. The choice of the title “modeling bounded rationality” rather than “models of bounded rationality” or “economic models of bounded rationality” emphasizes that the focus is not on substantive conclusions derived from the models but on the tools themselves. As to the term bounded rationality, putting fences around a field is often viewed as a picky activity. Nonetheless, it is important in this case in that the term has been used in many ways, sometimes just to say that we deal with incomplete (or bad) models. Lying within the domain of this investigation are models in which elements of the process of choice are embedded explicitly. Usually, economic models do not spell out the procedures by which decisions of the economic units are made; here, we are interested in models in which procedural aspects of decision making are explicitly included.

See on archive.org

29
Apr
12

A memory based model of bounded rationality : Mullainathan, Sendhil : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

How do memory limitations affect economic behavior? I develop a model of memory grounded in psychology and biology research to investigate this question. Using this model, I study the case where people apply Bayes rule to the history they recall as if it were the true history. The resulting beliefs exhibit over-reaction on average. They also exhibit under-reaction with the model providing enough structure to allow predictions about which effect dominates when. I then apply this general framework to an otherwise standard model of consumption. It predicts the broad structure of consumption predictability as well as differences in marginal propensity to consume across different income streams. Most important, because it ties the extent of bias to a measurable aspect of the stochastic process being forecasted, the model makes novel, testable empirical predictions. Keywords: psychology, biology, Bayes rule, personal economic history, consumption

See on archive.org




Time is real? I think not

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