Archivio per 21 agosto 2012

21
Ago
12

Franklin’s rule | Decision Science News

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

en Franklin had views on how to make a decision. In a letter to Joesph Preistley, he wroteTo Joseph Priestley

London, September 19, 1772

Dear Sir,

In the Affair of so much Importance to you, wherein you ask my Advice, I cannot for want of sufficient Premises, advise you what to determine, but if you please I will tell you how.

When these difficult Cases occur, they are difficult chiefly because while we have them under Consideration all the Reasons pro and con are not present to the Mind at the same time; but sometimes one Set present themselves, and at other times another, the first being out of Sight. Hence the various Purposes or Inclinations that alternately prevail, and the Uncertainty that perplexes us.

To get over this, my Way is, to divide half a Sheet of Paper by a Line into two Columns, writing over the one Pro, and over the other Con. Then during three or four Days Consideration I put down under the different Heads short Hints of the different Motives that at different Times occur to me for or against the Measure. When I have thus got them all together in one View, I endeavour to estimate their respective Weights; and where I find two, one on each side, that seem equal, I strike them both out: If I find a Reason pro equal to some two Reasons con, I strike out the three. If I judge some two Reasons con equal to some three Reasons pro, I strike out the five; and thus proceeding I find at length where the Ballance lies; and if after a Day or two of farther Consideration nothing new that is of Importance occurs on either side, I come to a Determination accordingly.

And tho’ the Weight of Reasons cannot be taken with the Precision of Algebraic Quantities, yet when each is thus considered separately and comparatively, and the whole lies before me, I think I can judge better, and am less likely to take a rash Step; and in fact I have found great Advantage from this kind of Equation, in what may be called Moral or Prudential Algebra.

Wishing sincerely that you may determine for the best, I am ever, my dear Friend,

Yours most affectionately

B. Franklin

A fair bit of academic research has been done on the quality of Franklin’s rule for making decisions.

See on www.decisionsciencenews.com

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21
Ago
12

Researchers provide exciting first glimpse into the competitive brain

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

(Medical Xpress) — While most of us have been wrapped up in the competitive spirit of the Olympic Games, two University of Otago researchers have been busy teasing out what exactly in the brain drives competitive behaviour.

See on medicalxpress.com

21
Ago
12

Michael Mauboussin’s Behavioral Economics Reading List:

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

http://www.blogcatalog.com/directory/investing...

See on www.simoleonsense.com

21
Ago
12

Is Behavioral Economics Really a Game Changer for Marketers? | Canadian Marketing Association

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Welcome to the CMA – Canadian Marketing Association – Blog. This Blog is an initiative of the CMA Digital Marketing Council.

See on www.the-cma.org

21
Ago
12

Behavioral Economics Reading List

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The Farnam Street Behavioral Economics Reading List is the most comprehensive behavioral science reading list on the internet.

See on www.farnamstreetblog.com




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