Archivio per settembre 2012

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Study shows gender bias in science is real. Here’s why it matters. | Unofficial Prognosis, Scientific American Blog Network

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

It’s tough to prove gender bias.

In a real-world setting, typically the most we can do is identify differences in outcome. A man is selected for hire over a woman; fewer women reach tenure track positions; there’s a gender gap in publications. Bias may be suspected in some cases, but the difficulty in using outcomes to prove it is that the differences could be due to many potential factors. We can speculate: perhaps women are less interested in the field. Perhaps women make lifestyle choices that lead them away from leadership positions. In a real-world setting, when any number of variables can contribute to an outcome, it’s essentially impossible to tease them apart and pinpoint what is causative.

See on blogs.scientificamerican.com

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SocialMediaSurfer

Se stravolgi l’ordine prestabilito… Tutto diventa improvvisamente caos. Sono un agente del caos. Ah, e sai qual è il bello del caos? È equo.
[Il Cavaliere Oscuro, Christopher Nolan]

Gli esseri umani e in generale tutti gli organismi viventi costituiscono una rete fittissima di interazioni su piani pluridimensionali (ad esempio, su un piano possiamo individuare le relazioni tra gli individui, su un altro quelle tra individui e l’ecosistema, mentre su un altro ancora troviamo le interazioni tra gli elementi non umani dell’ecosistema stesso come le relazioni operative, amministrative, di mercato, economiche in un’azienda). In base alle variabili in gioco, il sistema appena descritto assume configurazioni che per gran parte sono imprevedibili e del tutto casuali.

Il motivo della complessità dietro ogni sistema sociale, politico, biologico o economico sta proprio nell’infinita quantità di eventi che possono, in tempi diversi, influenzare i soggetti che lo compongono e le loro azioni.

Il primo…

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26
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Camerer, C.F., Loewenstein, G., Rabin, M., eds.: Advances in Behavioral Economics.

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Twenty years ago, behavioral economics did not exist as a field. Most economists were deeply skeptical–even antagonistic–toward the idea of importing insights from psychology into their field. Today, behavioral economics has become virtually mainstream. It is well represented in prominent journals and top economics departments, and behavioral economists, including several contributors to this volume, have garnered some of the most prestigious awards in the profession.

This book assembles the most important papers on behavioral economics published since around 1990. Among the 25 articles are many that update and extend earlier foundational contributions, as well as cutting-edge papers that break new theoretical and empirical ground.

Advances in Behavioral Economics will serve as the definitive one-volume resource for those who want to familiarize themselves with the new field or keep up-to-date with the latest developments. It will not only be a core text for students, but will be consulted widely by professional economists, as well as psychologists and social scientists with an interest in how behavioral insights are being applied in economics.

 

See on press.princeton.edu

26
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Thinking in Systems

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

“Another of my purposes, the main one, is to give you a basic ability to understand and to deal with complex systems, even if your formal systems training begins and ends with this book.”..This book has been distilled out of the wisdom of thirty years of systemsmodeling and teaching carried out by dozens of creative people, mostof them originally based at or influenced by the MIT System Dynamicsgroup. Foremost among them is Jay Forrester, the founder of the group.My particular teachers (and students who have become my teachers) havebeen, in addition to Jay: Ed Roberts, Jack Pugh, Dennis Meadows, HartmutBossel, Barry Richmond, Peter Senge, John Sterman, and Peter Allen, butI have drawn here from the language, ideas, examples, quotes, books, andlore of a large intellectual community. I express my admiration and grati-tude to all its members.I also have drawn from thinkers in a variety of disciplines, who, as faras I know, never used a computer to simulate a system, but who are natu-ral systems thinkers. They include Gregory Bateson, Kenneth Boulding,Herman Daly, Albert Einstein, Garrett Hardin, Václav Havel, LewisMumford, Gunnar Myrdal, E.F. Schumacher, a number of modern corpo-rate executives, and many anonymous sources of ancient wisdom, fromNative Americans to the Sufis of the Middle East. Strange bedfellows, butsystems thinking transcends disciplines and cultures and, when it is doneright, it overarches history as well.

See on www.scribd.com

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Complex and Adaptive Dynamic Systems

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

About this Book
From Evolving Networks to Cognitive Systems Theory This textbook covers awide range of concepts, notions and phenomena of a truly interdisciplinary subject of rapidly growing importance. Complex system theory deals with dynamicalsystems containing a very large number of variables, showing a plethora of emergent features, arising in a broad range of contexts. A central focus of these notes isthe notion of complexity arising within evolving and dynamical network structures,such as the gene expression networks at the basis of all living, adaptive ecologicalnetworks or neural networks for cognitive information processing.Complex systems theory ultimately forms the basis of our long-standing questfor exploring and understanding cognitive systems in general and our brain in particular the mammalian brain sprobably the most complex of all adaptive networks known to humanity

See on www.scribd.com

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Why is Economics not a Complex Systems Science?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Economics is viewed as a di scipline that is mainly concerned with ‘simplistic’ theorizing, centered upon constrained optimization. As such, it is ahistorical and outcome focused, ie, it does notdeal with economic processes. It is argued that all parts of the economy are inhabited by complex adaptive systems operating in complicated

historical contexts and that this should be acknowledge d at the core of economic analysis. It is explained how economics changes in fundamental ways when such a perspective is adopted, even if the presumption that people will try to optimize subject to constraints is retained. This is illustrated through discussi on of how the production

function construct has been used to provid e an abstract representation of the network structures that exist in complex adaptive systems such as firms. It is argued that this has led to a serious understatement of the importance of rule systems that govern the connections in productive networks. The macroeconomics of John Maynard Keynes is then revisited to provide an example of how some economists in earlier times were able to provide powerful economic analysis that was based on intuitions that we can now classify as belonging to complex system s perspective on the economy. Throughout the paper, the reasons why a complex system

s perspective did not develop in the mainstream of economics in the 20th. Century, despite the massive popularity of an economist like Keynes, are discussed and this is returned to in the concluding section where the prospect of paradigmatic change o ccurring in the future is evaluated.

See on www2.econ.iastate.edu

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Improving the Effectiveness of Time-Based Dysplay Advertising

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

DANIEL G. GOLDSTEIN and R. PRESTON MCAFEE and SIDDHARTH SURI

 

Display advertisements are typically sold by the impression, where one impression is simply one download of an ad. Previous work has shown that the longer an ad is in view, the more likely a user is to remember it and that there are diminishing returns to increased exposure time [Goldstein et al. 2011]. Since a pricing scheme that is at least partially based on time is more exact than one based solely on impressions, time-based advertising may become an industry standard. We answer an open question concerning time-based

pricing schemes: how should time slots for advertisements be divided? We provide evidence that ads can be scheduled in a way that leads to greater total recollection, which advertisers value, and increased revenue, which publishers value. We document two main findings. First, we show that displaying two shorter ads results in more total recollection than displaying one longer ad of twice the duration. Second, we show that this effect disappears as the duration of these ads increases. We conclude with a theoretical prediction

regarding the circumstances under which the display advertising industry would benefit if it moved to a partially or fully time-based standard.

 

See on www.dangoldstein.com




Time is real? I think not

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