Archivio per dicembre 2012

31
Dic
12

The Dictator’s Handbook

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

For eighteen years, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith have been part of a team revolutionizing the study of politics by turning conventional wisdom on its head. They start from a single assertion: Leaders do whatever keeps them in power.

See on books.google.it

31
Dic
12

Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in economics: A Review and Assessmen Nicholas C. Barberis – November 2012

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Alessandro Cerboni‘s insight:

Abstract
Prospect theory, first described in a 1979 paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, is widely viewed as the best available description of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. While the theory contains many remarkable insights, it has proven challenging to apply these insights in economic settings, and it is only recently that there has been real progress in doing so. In this paper, after firstreviewing prospect theory and the difficulties inherent in applying it, I discuss some of this recent work. It is too early to declare this research effort an unqualified success. But the rapid progress of the last decade makes me optimistic that at least some of the insights of prospect theory will eventually find a permanent and significant place in mainstream economic analysis.

See on faculty.som.yale.edu

31
Dic
12

Keynes’ ‘Animal Spirits’ in the financia markets

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Keynes’ ‘Animal Spirits’ in the financial markets: Is it time that ‘Risk Management’ should place greater focus on human emotions and their effect on financial decision-making?
Steven Goldstein is a qualified executive coach working with traders and portfolio managers to help them improve and enhance their personal trading performance in order to achieve greater success and improved profitability. Prior to working as a coach, Steven spent twenty-five years as a trader in the financial markets for a number of major banks and financial institutions.
During this time Steven developed an in-depth understanding of financial markets, and the psychology and behavioural aspects associated with being a risk professional at the cutting edge of trading and investing.

See on www.riskrewardlimited.com

31
Dic
12

Green Consumption

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

There was a time when farmer’s markets, eco products, recycling, and renewable energy were squarely in the tree hugger’s domain. Then, somewhere along the line, green went mainstream, turning environmental awareness into a socially desirable trait and a mark of morality.

But is eco-friendliness always a boon? When University of Toronto researchers Nina Mazar and Chen-Bo Zhong recently looked into this, they found that under certain circumstances, green products can license us to act immorally.

Through a series of experiments, Mazar and Zhong drew the following distinction between two kinds of exposure to green: When it’s a matter of pure priming (i.e., we are reminded of eco products through words or images), our norms of social responsibility are activated and we become more likely to act ethically afterwards. But if we take the next step and actually purchase the green product (thereby aligning our actions with our moral self-image), we give ourselves the go-ahead to then slack off a little and engage in subsequent dishonest behavior.

See on www.linkedin.com

31
Dic
12

Three Lessons on Irrationality from the Bernie Madoff Scandal

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The first chapter of the Bernie Madoff fiasco has come to a close, with Madoff recently pleading guilty to 11 charges of fraud.Madoff’s massive Ponzi scheme was horrific on many levels. But

See on www.linkedin.com

30
Dic
12

2012 in review

I folletti delle statistiche di WordPress.com hanno preparato un rapporto annuale 2012 per questo blog.

Ecco un estratto:

600 people reached the top of Mt. Everest in 2012. This blog got about 2.100 views in 2012. If every person who reached the top of Mt. Everest viewed this blog, it would have taken 4 years to get that many views.

Clicca qui per vedere il rapporto completo.

27
Dic
12

Bounded Rationality, Standard Form Contracts, And Unconscionability Russell Korobkin

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Bounded Rationality, Standard Form Contracts, and Unconscionability

Russell Korobkin
Economic theory suggests that, in most circumstances, market forces will ensure that standard form contracts contain terms that are not only socially efficient but also beneficial to nondrafting parties as a class compared to other possible combinations of price and terms. This analysis in turn suggests that courts should enforce all form terms or, at a minimum, all form terms that
non-drafting parties read and understand. Relying on social science research on decisionmaking, this Article argues that non-drafting parties (usually buyers) are boundedly rational decisionmakers who will normally price only a limited number of product attributes as part of their purchase decision. When contract terms are not among these attributes, drafting parties will have a market incentive to include terms in their standard forms that favor themselves, whether or not such terms are efficient. Thus, there is no a priori reason to assume form contract terms will be efficient. The Article then argues that the proper policy response to this conclusion is greater use of mandatory
contract terms and judicial modification of the unconscionability doctrine to better respond to the primary cause of contractual inefficiency..

See on www.scribd.com

27
Dic
12

Neuron – A Continuous Semantic Space Describes the Representation of Thousands of Object and Action Categories across the Human Brain

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Humans can see and name thousands of distinct object and action categories, so it is unlikely that each category is represented in a distinct brain area. A more efficient scheme would be to represent categories as locations in a continuous semantic space mapped smoothly across the cortical surface. To search for such a space, we used fMRI to measure human brain activity evoked by natural movies. We then used voxelwise models to examine the cortical representation of 1,705 object and action categories. The first few dimensions of the underlying semantic space were recovered from the fit models by principal components analysis. Projection of the recovered semantic space onto cortical flat maps shows that semantic selectivity is organized into smooth gradients that cover much of visual and nonvisual cortex. Furthermore, both the recovered semantic space and the cortical organization of the space are shared across different individuals.

See on www.cell.com

26
Dic
12

NIH VideoCasting – Behavioral Economics and Health

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Behavioral Economics and Health

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (OBSSR) will present a seminar with national experts from the ideas42 research group on behavioral economics and health.
Guest Speakers:
• Sendhil Mullainathan, Professor of Economics, Harvard University
• Eldar Shafir, Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs, Princeton University
• Katherine Baicker, Professor of Health Economics, Harvard University
• William Congdon, Research Director, Brookings Institution
• Gregory Mills, Senior Research Director, Harvard University
• Lisa Gennetian, Senior Research Director, Brookings Institution

Programs that address critical health and social problems have too often been met with limited success. One possible reason for this is that many programs are built on incomplete assumptions about human behavior. ideas42 is a research organization that draws on behavioral economics to infuse health and social policy efforts – from health insurance expansion to poverty alleviation – with a richer model of human behavior. Emerging science in the field of decision-making and cognitive psychology leads to new insights into the sources and nature of human behavior, as well as to new approaches and tools for addressing them. With a more nuanced understanding of why and how people make decisions, policies can improve people’s lives not simply by mandating, subsidizing, or penalizing, but also by recognizing and responding to the role of human frailties. For example, programs and policies employing these models can make it easier for people to follow their doctor’s advice, plan for retirement or search for a better job. We will describe a behavioral economics approach to human behavior with a focus on health. Our strategy combines research (infusion of new ideas, testing, and evaluation) with action (program implementation, service delivery, attention to process and on-the ground details) to design effective solutions to our most pressing health and social problems.

See on videocast.nih.gov

26
Dic
12

Bounded Rationality – The Adaptive Toolbox

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Bounded Rationality – The Adaptive Toolbox – Visions of rationality do not respect disciplinary boundaries. Economics, psychology, animal biology, artificial intelligence, anthropology, and philosophy struggle with models of sound judgment, inference, and decision making. These models evolve over time, just as the idea of rationality has a history, a present, and a future (Daston 1988). Over the last centuries, models of rationality have changed when they conflicted with actual behavior, yet, at the same time, they provided prescriptions for behavior. This double role — to describe and to prescribe — does not map easily onto a sharp divide between descriptive and normative models, which plays down the actual exchange between the psychological and the rational (Gigerenzer et al. 1989). Herbert Simon’s notion of bounded rationality was proposed in the mid-1950s to connect, rather than to oppose, the rational and the psychological (Simon 1956). The aim of this book is to contribute to this process of coevolution, by inserting more psychology into rationality, and vice versa.
This book, however, cannot and will not provide a unified theory of bounded
rationality. Rather, its goals are (a) to provide a framework of bounded rationality in terms of the metaphor of the adaptive toolbox, (b) to provide an understanding about why and when the simple heuristics in the adaptive toolbox work, (c) to extend the notion of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions, and (d) to extend the notion of bounded rationality to include social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools.

See on fr.scribd.com




Time is real? I think not

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