Archivio per 12 luglio 2013

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Monty Hall problem – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The Monty Hall problem is a probability puzzle, loosely based on the American television game show Let’s Make a Deal and named after the show’s original host, Monty Hall. The problem was originally posed in a letter by Steve Selvin to the American Statistician in 1975 (Selvin 1975a), (Selvin 1975b). It became famous in the following form, as a question from a reader’s letter quoted in Marilyn vos Savant’s “Ask Marilyn” column in Parade magazine in 1990 (vos Savant 1990a):

Vos Savant’s response was that the contestant should switch to the other door. (vos Savant 1990a)

The argument depends on the assumptions, made explicit in more extended solution descriptions given by Selvin (1975a) and by vos Savant (1991a), that the host always opens a different door from the door chosen by the player and always reveals a goat by this action – something he can always do because he knows where the car is hidden. Leonard Mlodinow says: The Monty Hall problem is hard to grasp, because unless you think about it carefully, the role of the host goes unappreciated. (Mlodinow 2008)

See on en.wikipedia.org

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Monty Hall problem – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

See on en.wikipedia.org

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Experimental and Behavioral Economics: Competitiveness and Age

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The abstract reads:
Existing theories on life span changes in confidence or motivation suggest that individuals’ preferences to enter competitive situations should gradually decline with age. We examined competitive preferences in a field experiment using real financial stakes in 25- to 75-year-olds (N=543). The critical dependent variable was whether participants chose to perform a simple mental arithmetic task either under a piece-rate payment schedule (i.e., $.25 per solved item) or a competitive payment schedule ($.50 per solved item if the overall score is better than that of a randomly selected opponent, $0 otherwise). Results revealed that competitive preferences increased across the life span until they peaked around age 50, and dropped thereafter. We also found that throughout, men had a substantially larger preference for competing than women extending previous findings on college-aged participants. The age/gender differences in preferences were neither accounted for by actual differences in performance nor individuals’ subjective confidence. This first systematic attempt to characterize age differences in competitive behavior suggests that a simple decline conception of competitiveness needs to be reconsidered.

See on experimentalandbehavioral.blogspot.hu

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Experimental and Behavioral Economics: Competitiveness and Age

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The abstract reads:
Existing theories on life span changes in confidence or motivation suggest that individuals’ preferences to enter competitive situations should gradually decline with age. We examined competitive preferences in a field experiment using real financial stakes in 25- to 75-year-olds (N=543). The critical dependent variable was whether participants chose to perform a simple mental arithmetic task either under a piece-rate payment schedule (i.e., $.25 per solved item) or a competitive payment schedule ($.50 per solved item if the overall score is better than that of a randomly selected opponent, $0 otherwise). Results revealed that competitive preferences increased across the life span until they peaked around age 50, and dropped thereafter. We also found that throughout, men had a substantially larger preference for competing than women extending previous findings on college-aged participants. The age/gender differences in preferences were neither accounted for by actual differences in performance nor individuals’ subjective confidence. This first systematic attempt to characterize age differences in competitive behavior suggests that a simple decline conception of competitiveness needs to be reconsidered.

See on experimentalandbehavioral.blogspot.hu

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Money, Sex, and Happiness: An Empirical Study

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

This paper studies the links between income, sexual behavior and reported happiness. It uses recent data on a random sample of 16,000 adult Americans. The paper finds that sexual activity enters strongly positively in happiness equations. Greater income does not buy more sex, nor more sexual partners. The typical American has sexual intercourse 2-3 times a month. Married people have more sex than those who are single, divorced, widowed or separated. Sexual activity appears to have greater effects on the happiness of highly educated people than those with low levels of education. The happiness-maximizing number of sexual partners in the previous year is calculated to be 1. Highly educated females tend to have fewer sexual partners. Homosexuality has no statistically significant effect on happiness. Our conclusions are based on pooled cross-section equations in which it is not possible to correct for the endogeneity of sexual activity. The statistical results should be treated cautiously.

See on nber.org

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Money, Sex, and Happiness: An Empirical Study

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

This paper studies the links between income, sexual behavior and reported happiness. It uses recent data on a random sample of 16,000 adult Americans. The paper finds that sexual activity enters strongly positively in happiness equations. Greater income does not buy more sex, nor more sexual partners. The typical American has sexual intercourse 2-3 times a month. Married people have more sex than those who are single, divorced, widowed or separated. Sexual activity appears to have greater effects on the happiness of highly educated people than those with low levels of education. The happiness-maximizing number of sexual partners in the previous year is calculated to be 1. Highly educated females tend to have fewer sexual partners. Homosexuality has no statistically significant effect on happiness. Our conclusions are based on pooled cross-section equations in which it is not possible to correct for the endogeneity of sexual activity. The statistical results should be treated cautiously.

See on www.nber.org

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The 12 cognitive biases that prevent you from being rational

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

window.google_analytics_uacct = ‘UA-accountnumber-propertyindex’; var google_adnum = 0; /* only insert this line for your first ad unit */ function google_ad_request_done(google_ads) { console.log(document.referrer); var domain = “; …

See on io9.com




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