Archivio per 6 novembre 2013

06
Nov
13

Why Obamacare is a Success? It’s for nudge?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

There are 2 major political parties in America. I’m a member of the naïve, stupid, and cowardly one. I’m a Republican. How stupid is the GOP? They still don’t get it. I told them 5 years ago, 2 books ago, a national bestseller ago (“The Ultimate Obama Survival Guide”), and in hundreds of articles and commentaries, that Obamacare was never meant to help America, or heal the sick, or lower healthcare costs, or lower the debt, or expand the economy.

The GOP needs to stop calling Obamacare a “trainwreck.” That means it’s a mistake, or accident. That means it’s a gigantic flop, or failure. It’s NOT. This is a brilliant, cynical, and purposeful attempt to damage the U.S. economy, kill jobs, and bring down capitalism. It’s not a failure, it’s Obama’s grand success. It’s not a “trainwreck,” Obamacare is a suicide attack. He wants to hurt us, to bring us to our knees, to capitulate- so we agree under duress to accept big government.

See on rootforamerica.com

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06
Nov
13

Why Obamacare is a Success? It’s for nudge?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

There are 2 major political parties in America. I’m a member of the naïve, stupid, and cowardly one. I’m a Republican. How stupid is the GOP? They still don’t get it. I told them 5 years ago, 2 books ago, a national bestseller ago (“The Ultimate Obama Survival Guide”), and in hundreds of articles and commentaries, that Obamacare was never meant to help America, or heal the sick, or lower healthcare costs, or lower the debt, or expand the economy.

 

The GOP needs to stop calling Obamacare a “trainwreck.” That means it’s a mistake, or accident. That means it’s a gigantic flop, or failure. It’s NOT. This is a brilliant, cynical, and purposeful attempt to damage the U.S. economy, kill jobs, and bring down capitalism. It’s not a failure, it’s Obama’s grand success. It’s not a “trainwreck,” Obamacare is a suicide attack. He wants to hurt us, to bring us to our knees, to capitulate- so we agree under duress to accept big government.

 

See on www.rootforamerica.com

06
Nov
13

Game interrupted: The rationality of considering the future

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The “problem of points”, introduced by Paccioli in 1494 and solved by Pascal and Fermat 160 years later, inspired the modern concept of probability. Incidentally, the problem also shows that rational decision-making requires the consideration of future events. We show that naïve responses to the problem of points are more future oriented and thus more rational in this sense when the problem itself is presented in a future frame instead of the canonical past frame. A simple nudge is sufficient to make decisions more rational. We consider the implications of this finding for hypothesis testing and predictions of replicability.

See on journal.sjdm.org

06
Nov
13

Game interrupted: The rationality of considering the future

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The “problem of points”, introduced by Paccioli in 1494 and solved by Pascal and Fermat 160 years later, inspired the modern concept of probability. Incidentally, the problem also shows that rational decision-making requires the consideration of future events. We show that naïve responses to the problem of points are more future oriented and thus more rational in this sense when the problem itself is presented in a future frame instead of the canonical past frame. A simple nudge is sufficient to make decisions more rational. We consider the implications of this finding for hypothesis testing and predictions of replicability.

See on journal.sjdm.org

06
Nov
13

Society for Judgment and Decision Making newsletter is ready for download

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

SOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER
 
The quarterly Society for Judgment and Decision Making newsletter is ready for downloading:
http://sjdm.org/newsletters/
It features jobs, conferences, announcements, and more.

See on decisionsciencenews.com

06
Nov
13

Society for Judgment and Decision Making newsletter is ready for download

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

SOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER
 
The quarterly Society for Judgment and Decision Making newsletter is ready for downloading:
http://sjdm.org/newsletters/
It features jobs, conferences, announcements, and more.

See on www.decisionsciencenews.com

06
Nov
13

Belief in the unstructured interview: The persistence of an illusion

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Abstract

Unstructured interviews are a ubiquitous tool for making screening decisions despite a vast literature suggesting that they have little validity. We sought to establish reasons why people might persist in the illusion that unstructured interviews are valid and what features about them actually lead to poor predictive accuracy. In three studies, we investigated the propensity for “sensemaking” – the ability for interviewers to make sense of virtually anything the interviewee says—

and “dilution”—the tendency for available but non-diagnostic information to weaken the predictive value of quality information. In Study 1, participants predicted two fellow students’ semester GPAs from valid background information like prior GPA and, for one of them, an unstructured interview. In one condition, the interview was essentially nonsense in that the interviewee was actually answering questions using a random response system. Consistent with sensemaking, participants formed interview impressions just as confidently after getting random responses as they did after real responses. Consistent with dilution, interviews actually led participants to make worse predictions. Study 2 showed that watching a random interview, rather than personally conducting it, did little to mitigate sensemaking. Study 3 showed that participants believe unstructured interviews will help accuracy, so much so that they would rather have random interviews than no interview. People form confident impressions even interviews are defined to be invalid, like our random interview, and these impressions can interfere with the use of valid information. Our simple recommendation for those

making screening decisions is not to use them.

See on journal.sjdm.org




Time is real? I think not

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