Archivio per 25 febbraio 2014

25
Feb
14

Why journalists drive scientists crazy, in graphs | Poynter.

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Journalists have to simplify material for a general audience. Is there a technological fix? 

Scientists and the journalists who cover them are locked in an “eternal tug of war,” Sabine Hossenfelder writes. The journos feel they have to elide detail so a general audience can read them. The scientists feel the resulting “knowledge transfer” to readers is pitifully low. Hossenfelder illustrates the problem with a series of graphs, like this one:

Hossenfelder notes that sports journalism doesn’t assume its readers need their reports dumbed-down, and suggests online science journalism may hold a solution: “a system with a few layers – call them beginner, advanced, pro – would already make a big difference.”

See on poynter.org

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25
Feb
14

Why journalists drive scientists crazy, in graphs | Poynter.

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Journalists have to simplify material for a general audience. Is there a technological fix? 

Scientists and the journalists who cover them are locked in an “eternal tug of war,” Sabine Hossenfelder writes. The journos feel they have to elide detail so a general audience can read them. The scientists feel the resulting “knowledge transfer” to readers is pitifully low. Hossenfelder illustrates the problem with a series of graphs, like this one:

Hossenfelder notes that sports journalism doesn’t assume its readers need their reports dumbed-down, and suggests online science journalism may hold a solution: “a system with a few layers – call them beginner, advanced, pro – would already make a big difference.”

See on www.poynter.org

25
Feb
14

Biological characteristics modulating investor overconfidence

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Abstract
Applying a standard questionnaire (Lichtenstein and Fischhoff 1977) to a sample of 44 professional investors, we sought for explicit correlations between selected biological characteristics of the investors and the cognitive bias known as overconfidence. We found that both male and female investors showed overconfidence above the subjective probability of 0.7 and underconfidence below this threshold. But the sexes seemed to behave differently when they were totally uncertain of their answers. Experienced and inexperienced investors were overconfident whenever they were 70 percent (or above) confident of their answers. Despite that, experienced investors were relatively more
calibrated. Of those who were highly uncertain of their answers, the inexperienced showed less confidence. Moreover, a logistic regression analysis showed that male subjects, fathers, right-handers, and subjects with a university degree and less than five years of experience in stock markets were more prone to the overconfidence effect.

See on accessecon.com

25
Feb
14

Biological characteristics modulating investor overconfidence

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Abstract
Applying a standard questionnaire (Lichtenstein and Fischhoff 1977) to a sample of 44 professional investors, we sought for explicit correlations between selected biological characteristics of the investors and the cognitive bias known as overconfidence. We found that both male and female investors showed overconfidence above the subjective probability of 0.7 and underconfidence below this threshold. But the sexes seemed to behave differently when they were totally uncertain of their answers. Experienced and inexperienced investors were overconfident whenever they were 70 percent (or above) confident of their answers. Despite that, experienced investors were relatively more
calibrated. Of those who were highly uncertain of their answers, the inexperienced showed less confidence. Moreover, a logistic regression analysis showed that male subjects, fathers, right-handers, and subjects with a university degree and less than five years of experience in stock markets were more prone to the overconfidence effect.

See on www.accessecon.com

25
Feb
14

THE COGNITIVE ILLUSION CONTROVERSY A METHODOLOGICAL DEBATE IN DISGUIS THAT MATTERS TO ECONOMISTS

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

See on library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de

25
Feb
14

THE COGNITIVE ILLUSION CONTROVERSY A METHODOLOGICAL DEBATE IN DISGUIS THAT MATTERS TO ECONOMISTS

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

See on library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de

25
Feb
14

CiteSeerX — A Dynamic Model of Group Performance: Considering the Group Members’ Capacity To Learn

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

CiteSeerX – Document Details (Isaac Councill, Lee Giles, Pradeep Teregowda): A dynamic model of group performance is suggested that combines the group learning approach and the combination of contributions approach. Three hypotheses are tested in two experiments, comparing individual training conditions with mixed group and individual training conditions on subsequent nominal and collective group performance of rule induction tasks under identical time constraints. As predicted, collective group performance improves as a function of group experience, nominal group performance improves as a function of improved individual resources for performing the task individually, and group experience reduces process losses by improving individuals’ ability to collaborate efficiently. Several experiments from the literature that address issues of group learning are analyzed in the light of the propositions made in the dynamic model. Overall, theoretical and experimental approaches to investigating group learning phenomena are discussed.

See on citeseerx.ist.psu.edu




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