Archivio per giugno 2014



26
Giu
14

La crise économique sur le divan du psychanalyste

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

L’analyse économique repose sur un postulat faux : la rationalité des acteurs. La nouvelle norme est celle du chaos perpétuel. Même le FMI a avoué qu’il avait beaucoup de mal à analyser avec les outils « classiques » de l’économie l’enchaînement de crises qui se succèdent depuis 2008 dans le monde. Deux économistes de renom, Vivien Levy-Garboua, « senior adviser » de BNP Paribas, et Gérard Maarek, conseiller scientifique de l’Edhec, prennent acte de ce constat d’impuissance dans ce nouveau livre qui propose ni plus ni moins une sorte de révolution pour leur discipline. Le problème, expliquent les deux auteurs, l’un et l’autre praticiens aguerris des modèles économétriques, c’est que ces modèles reposent sur l’hypothèse de rationalité de l’homo oeconomicus, de moins en moins pertinente pour analyser les évolutions convulsives de notre économie financiarisée et mondialisée. « Depuis quelques décennies, observent-ils, le psychisme de l’homme moderne s’est profondément modifié et, avec lui, celui des groupes constitués, familles, entreprises, peuples, dans lesquels il s’insère. »

See on lesechos.fr

Annunci
26
Giu
14

Instinct Can Beat Analytical Thinking

A Q&A with psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer.

Researchers have confronted us in recent years with example after example of how we humans get things wrong when it comes to making decisions. We misunderstand probability, we’re myopic, wepay attention to the wrong things, and we just generally mess up. This popular triumph of the “heuristics and biases” literature pioneered by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tverskyhas made us aware of flaws that economics long glossed over, and led to interesting innovations inretirement planning and government policy.

It is not, however, the only lens through which to view decision-making. Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has spent his career focusing on the ways in which we get things right, or could at least learn to. In Gigerenzer’s view, using heuristics, rules of thumb, and other shortcuts often leads to better decisions than the models of “rational” decision-making developed by mathematicians and statisticians. At times this belief has led the managing director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin into pretty fierce debates with his intellectual opponents. It has also led to a growing body of fascinating research, and a growing library of books for lay readers, the latest of which, Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions, is just out.

During a visit to HBR’s New York office, Gigerenzer discussed his work for an Ideacast podcast, which you can listen to here:

Source: blogs.hbr.org

26
Giu
14

Instinct Can Beat Analytical Thinking

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

A Q&A with psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer.

Researchers have confronted us in recent years with example after example of how we humans get things wrong when it comes to making decisions. We misunderstand probability, we’re myopic, wepay attention to the wrong things, and we just generally mess up. This popular triumph of the “heuristics and biases” literature pioneered by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tverskyhas made us aware of flaws that economics long glossed over, and led to interesting innovations inretirement planning and government policy.

It is not, however, the only lens through which to view decision-making. Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has spent his career focusing on the ways in which we get things right, or could at least learn to. In Gigerenzer’s view, using heuristics, rules of thumb, and other shortcuts often leads to better decisions than the models of “rational” decision-making developed by mathematicians and statisticians. At times this belief has led the managing director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin into pretty fierce debates with his intellectual opponents. It has also led to a growing body of fascinating research, and a growing library of books for lay readers, the latest of which, Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions, is just out.

During a visit to HBR’s New York office, Gigerenzer discussed his work for an Ideacast podcast, which you can listen to here:

See on blogs.hbr.org

25
Giu
14

Neuroeconomics of Complex Social Behavior – YouTube

Michael L. Platt
Duke Institute for Brain Sciences, Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University

We are the most charitable species on the planet—often giving to others we don’t even know. We are also among the most competitive—misleading, lying, and cheating to further our own ends. How the brain shapes these choices remains poorly understood. I will describe recent work using a new model of social decision making in which pairs of monkeys interact through a computer device while we either monitor or manipulate their brains. We found that monkeys favor choices that reward another monkey, particularly if he is more familiar or subordinate, rather than choosing to reward no one. Oxytocin—a hormone implicated in social bonding—increases both prosocial choices and attention to the other monkey. We also found that prosocial choices selectively activated neurons in the medial frontal cortex, an area implicated in empathy in humans. By contrast, when monkeys played a competitive game against each other, they rapidly developed unpredictable behaviors that served to mislead the other monkey. We found that deceptive tactics selectively activated a specific population of cells in the lateral frontal cortex. Inactivating these neurons impaired deceptive planning. Together, these discoveries define part of a network of brain areas specialized for complex social behavior and cognition.

Source: www.youtube.com

25
Giu
14

Neuroeconomics of Complex Social Behavior – YouTube

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Michael L. Platt
Duke Institute for Brain Sciences, Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University

We are the most charitable species on the planet—often giving to others we don’t even know. We are also among the most competitive—misleading, lying, and cheating to further our own ends. How the brain shapes these choices remains poorly understood. I will describe recent work using a new model of social decision making in which pairs of monkeys interact through a computer device while we either monitor or manipulate their brains. We found that monkeys favor choices that reward another monkey, particularly if he is more familiar or subordinate, rather than choosing to reward no one. Oxytocin—a hormone implicated in social bonding—increases both prosocial choices and attention to the other monkey. We also found that prosocial choices selectively activated neurons in the medial frontal cortex, an area implicated in empathy in humans. By contrast, when monkeys played a competitive game against each other, they rapidly developed unpredictable behaviors that served to mislead the other monkey. We found that deceptive tactics selectively activated a specific population of cells in the lateral frontal cortex. Inactivating these neurons impaired deceptive planning. Together, these discoveries define part of a network of brain areas specialized for complex social behavior and cognition.

See on youtube.com

25
Giu
14

The Intuitive Investor: Why Intuition Is Important

There is a growing regard for intuition as many successful investors, including George Soros, attribute their success to it. Here is why intuition is important. 

Over the course of my investment career, I used several unconventional tools to improve the results of the fund I co-managed, but none was more powerful than intuition. In fact, there is a growing regard forintuition as many successful investors, including George Soros, attribute their success to intuition. A recent Wall Street Journal article said of executive decision making, “The potential conclusion is thatpeople who are good at strategy are better at sensing or feeling their way through strategies, rather than relying only on logic and being rational.” Even the author of My Life as a Quant, Emanuel Derman, has a deep-seated research interest in intuition. In this, the first in a regular series on the importance of intuition in investing, I will weigh in on the burgeoning discussion about intuition.

Source: blogs.cfainstitute.org

25
Giu
14

The Intuitive Investor: Why Intuition Is Important

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

There is a growing regard for intuition as many successful investors, including George Soros, attribute their success to it. Here is why intuition is important. 

Over the course of my investment career, I used several unconventional tools to improve the results of the fund I co-managed, but none was more powerful than intuition. In fact, there is a growing regard forintuition as many successful investors, including George Soros, attribute their success to intuition. A recent Wall Street Journal article said of executive decision making, “The potential conclusion is thatpeople who are good at strategy are better at sensing or feeling their way through strategies, rather than relying only on logic and being rational.” Even the author of My Life as a Quant, Emanuel Derman, has a deep-seated research interest in intuition. In this, the first in a regular series on the importance of intuition in investing, I will weigh in on the burgeoning discussion about intuition.

See on blogs.cfainstitute.org




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