Archivio per 19 novembre 2014

19
Nov
14

Gerd Gigerenzer on Simple heuristics that make us smart.

https://www.youtube.com/v/Mx_5_4Qur5Y?fs=1&hl=fr_FR

Gigerenzer gives examples where we can use simple solutions to complex problems, in
particular where simple heuristic rules are indispensable for good decisions under uncertainty. It is not always better to have more information, time, or computation.
About TEDx, x = independently organized event
In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations)

Source: www.youtube.com

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
Nov
14

Gerd Gigerenzer on Simple heuristics that make us smart.

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Gigerenzer gives examples where we can use simple solutions to complex problems, in
particular where simple heuristic rules are indispensable for good decisions under uncertainty. It is not always better to have more information, time, or computation.
About TEDx, x = independently organized event
In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations)

See on youtube.com

19
Nov
14

Superstition and financial decision making

http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de%2F58620%2F1%2FMPRA_paper_58620.pdf&embedded=true

Abstract: In Chinese culture, certain digits are lucky and others unlucky. We test how such numerological superstition affects financial decision in the China IPO market. We find that the frequency of lucky numerical stock listing codes exceeds what would be expected by chance. Also consistent with superstition effects, newly listed firms with lucky listing codes are initially traded at a premium after controlling for known determinants of valuation multiples, the lucky number premium dissipates within three years of the IPO, and lucky number firms experience inferior post-IPO abnormal returns.

Source: mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
Nov
14

Superstition and financial decision making

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Abstract: In Chinese culture, certain digits are lucky and others unlucky. We test how such numerological superstition affects financial decision in the China IPO market. We find that the frequency of lucky numerical stock listing codes exceeds what would be expected by chance. Also consistent with superstition effects, newly listed firms with lucky listing codes are initially traded at a premium after controlling for known determinants of valuation multiples, the lucky number premium dissipates within three years of the IPO, and lucky number firms experience inferior post-IPO abnormal returns.

See on mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

19
Nov
14

Everything Is a Meme

n the years preceding the financial crisis of 2008, certain key phrases appeared over and again in the public discourse on investing.

One that stands out in my mind is that home prices in the United States haven’t declined nationally since the Great Depression. The phrase appeared in television commentary by pundits, statements by Federal Reserve officials, in analyst reports, and in private conversations with Wall Street analysts.

I discovered the phrase yet again when studying securities ranging from housing stocks like KB Home (KBH), to large international banks like Citigroup (C), to government-sponsored entities like Fannie Mae, to mortgage companies like Countrywide Financial, to insurer and major credit default swap underwriter AIG.

Source: blogs.cfainstitute.org

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
Nov
14

Everything Is a Meme

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

n the years preceding the financial crisis of 2008, certain key phrases appeared over and again in the public discourse on investing.

One that stands out in my mind is that home prices in the United States haven’t declined nationally since the Great Depression. The phrase appeared in television commentary by pundits, statements by Federal Reserve officials, in analyst reports, and in private conversations with Wall Street analysts.

I discovered the phrase yet again when studying securities ranging from housing stocks like KB Home (KBH), to large international banks like Citigroup ©, to government-sponsored entities like Fannie Mae, to mortgage companies like Countrywide Financial, to insurer and major credit default swap underwriter AIG.

See on blogs.cfainstitute.org

19
Nov
14

Japan Enters Recession: Should We Be Surprised?

After declining 7.3% in Q2 2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.6% in Q3 2014 — officially placing the country in recession. It seems Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” strategy is failing. Should this really be a surprise?

Beginning in Q2 2014, Japan increased the national sales tax from 5% to 8% — pulling future demand into Q1 GDP ahead of the well-known tax hike, and harming Q2 GDP materially once it hit. The Q3 news also comes just weeks since the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced a major acceleration of monetary stimulus to 15% of GDP. Clearly, the BOJ was worried about the Japanese economy. However, this isn’t Japan’s first trip to the rodeo. As highlighted in Bloomberg’s “Japan Unexpectedly Enters Recession as Abe Weighs Tax: Economy,” in 1997, then-Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto hiked consumption taxes by 2%, pushing Japan into recession — causing Mr. Hashimoto to resign his post.

Source: blogs.cfainstitute.org

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
Nov
14

Japan Enters Recession: Should We Be Surprised?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

After declining 7.3% in Q2 2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.6% in Q3 2014 — officially placing the country in recession. It seems Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” strategy is failing. Should this really be a surprise?

Beginning in Q2 2014, Japan increased the national sales tax from 5% to 8% — pulling future demand into Q1 GDP ahead of the well-known tax hike, and harming Q2 GDP materially once it hit. The Q3 news also comes just weeks since the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced a major acceleration of monetary stimulus to 15% of GDP. Clearly, the BOJ was worried about the Japanese economy. However, this isn’t Japan’s first trip to the rodeo. As highlighted in Bloomberg’s “Japan Unexpectedly Enters Recession as Abe Weighs Tax: Economy,” in 1997, then-Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto hiked consumption taxes by 2%, pushing Japan into recession — causing Mr. Hashimoto to resign his post.

See on blogs.cfainstitute.org

19
Nov
14

Cognitive Bias Modification: Train Your Mind to See The Positive

Is your mind biased to see the positive or the negative in your environment?

A new form of self-therapy called cognitive bias modification attempts to train your mind to see the positive through a fun and interesting new technique.

In fact, a recent study has shown that cognitive bias modification (CBM) has been proven to reduce stress and anxiety. And another study discovered that CBM can reduce the pain of social rejections.

The basic idea behind the exercise is to try to spot the “happy face” among a bunch of “sad faces.” With practice, your mind gradually starts attracting to the “happy faces” faster and more easily.

And the reason this works is because your mind becomes less sensitive to the negative stimuli in your environment and more sensitive to the positive stimuli in your environment.

Try “cognitive bias modification” out for yourself.

Source: www.theemotionmachine.com

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
Nov
14

Cognitive Bias Modification: Train Your Mind to See The Positive

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Is your mind biased to see the positive or the negative in your environment?

A new form of self-therapy called cognitive bias modification attempts to train your mind to see the positive through a fun and interesting new technique.

In fact, a recent study has shown that cognitive bias modification (CBM) has been proven to reduce stress and anxiety. And another study discovered that CBM can reduce the pain of social rejections.

The basic idea behind the exercise is to try to spot the “happy face” among a bunch of “sad faces.” With practice, your mind gradually starts attracting to the “happy faces” faster and more easily.

And the reason this works is because your mind becomes less sensitive to the negative stimuli in your environment and more sensitive to the positive stimuli in your environment.

Try “cognitive bias modification” out for yourself.

See on theemotionmachine.com




Time is real? I think not

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