Archivio per 10 dicembre 2014

10
Dic
14

Five Economists Who Deserve Nobels

Tomorrow,  Jean Tirole will officially receive his Nobel Prize in economics. He was a pretty obvious candidate for the prize, given the amazing breadth, influence and skill of his body of work. But who might win in the future? There are many perennial top candidates, but a few seem to stand out clearly in my mind.

Of course, this short list is heavily weighted toward the fields I know most about — finance, behavioral economics and macroeconomics — so I’m neglecting most of the top candidates in other fields such as labor, tax, trade and growth. For that bias I apologize. And with that apology out of the way, here is my mental list, in no particular order:

Source: www.bloombergview.com

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Annunci
10
Dic
14

Five Economists Who Deserve Nobels

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Tomorrow,  Jean Tirole will officially receive his Nobel Prize in economics. He was a pretty obvious candidate for the prize, given the amazing breadth, influence and skill of his body of work. But who might win in the future? There are many perennial top candidates, but a few seem to stand out clearly in my mind.

Of course, this short list is heavily weighted toward the fields I know most about – finance, behavioral economics and macroeconomics – so I’m neglecting most of the top candidates in other fields such as labor, tax, trade and growth. For that bias I apologize. And with that apology out of the way, here is my mental list, in no particular order:

See on bloombergview.com

10
Dic
14

Limited Attention and Status Quo Bias

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
Abstract: We introduce and axiomatically characterize a model of status quo bias in which the status quo affects choices by both changing preferences and focusing attention. The resulting Limited Attention Status Quo Bias model can explain both the finding that status quo bias is more prevalent in larger choice sets and that the introduction of a status quo can change choices between non-status quo alternatives. Existing models of status quo bias are inconsistent with the former finding while models of decision avoidance are inconsistent with the latter. We report the results of laboratory experiments which show that both attention and preference channels are necessary to explain the impact of status quo on choice.
See on brown.edu

10
Dic
14

Limited Attention and Status Quo Bias

http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.brown.edu%2FDepartments%2FEconomics%2FPapers%2F2014%2F2014-11_paper.pdf&embedded=trueAbstract: We introduce and axiomatically characterize a model of status quo bias in which the status quo affects choices by both changing preferences and focusing attention. The resulting Limited Attention Status Quo Bias model can explain both the finding that status quo bias is more prevalent in larger choice sets and that the introduction of a status quo can change choices between non-status quo alternatives. Existing models of status quo bias are inconsistent with the former finding while models of decision avoidance are inconsistent with the latter. We report the results of laboratory experiments which show that both attention and preference channels are necessary to explain the impact of status quo on choice.

Source: www.brown.edu

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

10
Dic
14

Personality and Procedural Invariance: Effects on Bidding Behavior Across Induced Value Experimental Auction Mechanisms

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
Abstract: A growing literature exists on the design, implementation and evaluation of experimental auctions with a variety of non-market valuation applications. With behavioral economic models becoming more mainstreamed in the discipline, a natural question arises about how personality traits might affect bidding behavior in experimental auctions. To address this question, a series of induced-value experiments were carried out in the fall of 2012. Personality traits were measured in pre- and post-surveys aligning with the Midlife Development Inventory Analysis. Regression analysis determined the effects of personality traits on over- and under-bidding behaviors across four frequently used auction mechanism: the Becker-Degroot-Marschak, 2nd Price, Random Nth Price, and English auctions. Results indicate that only the BDM and Random Nth price auctions are significantly affected by personality profile. Specifically, openness, extraversion, and neuroticism are associated with overbidding behavior and agreeableness is associated with underbidding behaviors. 
See on econpapers.repec.org

10
Dic
14

Personality and Procedural Invariance: Effects on Bidding Behavior Across Induced Value Experimental Auction Mechanisms

Abstract: A growing literature exists on the design, implementation and evaluation of experimental auctions with a variety of non-market valuation applications. With behavioral economic models becoming more mainstreamed in the discipline, a natural question arises about how personality traits might affect bidding behavior in experimental auctions. To address this question, a series of induced-value experiments were carried out in the fall of 2012. Personality traits were measured in pre- and post-surveys aligning with the Midlife Development Inventory Analysis. Regression analysis determined the effects of personality traits on over- and under-bidding behaviors across four frequently used auction mechanism: the Becker-Degroot-Marschak, 2nd Price, Random Nth Price, and English auctions. Results indicate that only the BDM and Random Nth price auctions are significantly affected by personality profile. Specifically, openness, extraversion, and neuroticism are associated with overbidding behavior and agreeableness is associated with underbidding behaviors. 

Source: econpapers.repec.org

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

10
Dic
14

A Quantum Probability Account of Order Effects in Inference

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

A Quantum Probability Account of Order Effects in Inference

Abstract

 Order of information plays a crucial role in the process of updating beliefs across time. In fact, the presence of order effects makes a classical or Bayesian approach to inference difficult. As a result,

the existing models of inference, such as the belief-adjustment model, merely provide an ad hoc explanation for these effects. We postulate a quantum inference model for order effects based on the

axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory. The quantum inference model explains order effects by transforming a state vector with different sequences of operators for different orderings of information. We demonstrate this process by fitting the quantum model to data collected in a medical diagnostic task and a jury decision-making task. To further test the quantum inference model, a new jury decision-making experiment is developed. Using the results of this experiment, we compare the quantum inference model with two versions of the belief-adjustment model, the adding model and the averaging model. We show that both the quantum model and the adding model provide good fits to the data. To distinguish the quantum model from the adding model, we develop a new experiment involving extreme evidence. The results from this new experiment suggest that the adding model faces limitations when accounting for tasks involving extreme evidence, whereas the quantum inference model does not. Ultimately, we argue that the quantum model provides a more coherent account for order effects that was not possible before.

See on mypage.iu.edu




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