Archivio per 14 gennaio 2015

14
Gen
15

A Dollar Collapse is Coming – The Sovereign Investor

See on Scoop.itGold and What Moves it.

Below is, perhaps, the single greatest chart in the history of the U.S. dollar. To stock market technicians, that’s the mother of all “descending wedge” patterns. It’s the U.S. Dollar Index, as measured and reported monthly by the Treasury Department, going back more than four decades. Where our buck goes from here will say a great deal about the short-term future of the greenback.

But beyond the short term, it’s meaningless, despite what others might insist.

See on thesovereigninvestor.com

14
Gen
15

What can evaluators learn from complexity science and systems thinking?

See on Scoop.itComplex systems and projects

Marking the start to International Year of Evaluation, new analysis from IDS highlights how complexity science and systems thinking can inform approaches to impact evaluation.

See on ids.ac.uk

14
Gen
15

Nassim NicholنTaleb : Genealogy of my version of the Black Swan Problem and intersection of mathematics/philosophy/FatTonyism

See on Scoop.itBlack swans, risks and crisis

Genealogy of my version of the Black Swan Problem and intersection of mathematics/philosophy/FatTonyism pic.twitter.com/MUEY5IlC77

See on twitter.com

14
Gen
15

Reductionism, emergence, and burden of proof — part I

See on Scoop.itBrain Tricks: Belief, Bias, and Blindspots

by Marko Vojinovic Introduction Every now and then, the question of reductionism is raised in philosophy of science: whether or not various sciences can be theoretically reduced to lower-level scie…

See on scientiasalon.wordpress.com

14
Gen
15

Nasal Spray Effective Treatment For Memory Loss and Alzheimer’s, Study Finds — PsyBlog

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Memory loss and Alzheimer’s treated with a nasal spray over 21 days.

An insulin nasal spray can improve cognitive function in those with Alzheimer’s disease and normal age-related memory problems, new research finds.

The pilot study, published in the Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease, involved 60 adults who had normal age-related memory problems or mild to moderate Alzheimer’s (Claxton et al., 2015).

Over 21 days, two groups received different doses of insulin detemir: a synthetic, long-acting version of the natural hormone.

A comparison group received a placebo.

See on spring.org.uk

14
Gen
15

Is a Huge Stock Market Crash Imminent?

Is a Huge Stock Market Crash Imminent?

14
Gen
15

People prefer fair, but does the brain?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Whether for oneself or for others, fairness is preferred by people, but the brain network changes depending on who is actually benefiting. “In previous studies,” explains the lead investigator, “we found the same tendency to reject unfair offers regardless of whether the decision involved the subjects themselves or a third party. Brain imaging, however, suggested that the brain was working differently in the two situations.”

See on sciencedaily.com

14
Gen
15

Nudging and Uncertainty (Abstract)

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

In three respects, behaviorally informed governance faces much deeper uncertainty than traditional intervention. The first source of uncertainty is theoretical. Many empirically well-established behavioral effects are still not well understood. The second source of uncertainty is empirical. Despite the richness of many experimental literatures, many effects are still disputed. It is always up to debate whether lab evidence extrapolates to the phenomena in the field one wants to understand. The third source of uncertainty is heterogeneity. Hardly any behavioral effect is uniform.

The substantial additional uncertainty poses a practical problem. Behaviorally informed intervention may be pointless since analysis or prediction have gone wrong. Frequently, the behaviorally informed definition of the governance problem is far from consented. Moreover since so many behavioral effects are still so little understood, one has a hard time making reliable predictions about the possible effect of some intervention, let alone about the comparative assessment of competing interventions.

There are ways out, but they are normatively problematic. A first strategy is uncoupling explanation and prediction. Much like Facebook or Google, government may collect and analyze massive databases to detect robust cue patterns. A second strategy even does away with consent on problem definition. Government just tries out interventions, and maintains the ones that stir up least resistance.

 
See on verfassungsblog.de

14
Gen
15

Panel 1: Risk, Choice and Autonomy – Behavioral Economics and Choice Architectures

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Choice Architecture in Democracies: Exploring the Legitimacy of NudgingConference, Humboldt-University Berlin, Jan 12-14th 2015

Is “nudging” – as outlined by Cass Sunstein and Richard H. Thaler in their controversial concept of libertarian paternalism – a modern and efficient tool of governance or a dangerous attack on freedom and individual autonomy? Legal, economic and other experts will discuss the political, ethical and constitutional ramifications of nudging in a two-day conference at Berlin, beginning with a public lecture delivered by Cass Sunstein.

See on verfassungsblog.de




Time is real? I think not

gennaio: 2015
L M M G V S D
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031  

Commenti recenti

Inserisci il tuo indirizzo e-mail per iscriverti a questo blog e ricevere notifiche di nuovi messaggi per e-mail.

Unisciti ad altri 1.155 follower


%d blogger hanno fatto clic su Mi Piace per questo: