Archivio per 16 febbraio 2015

16
Feb
15

Rajiv Sethi: The Agent-Based Method

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

It’s nice to see some attention being paid to agent-based computational models on economics blogs, but Chris House has managed to misrepresent the methodology so completely that his post is likely to do more harm than good.  In comparing the agent-based method to the more standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach, House begins as follows:

Probably the most important distinguishing feature is that, in an ABM, the interactions are governed by rules of behavior that the modeler simply encodes directly into the system individuals who populate the environment.

So far so good, although I would not have used the qualifier “simply”, since encoded rules can be highly complex. For instance, an ABM that seeks to describe the trading process in an asset market may have multiple participant types (liquidity, information, and high-frequency traders for instance) and some of these may be using extremely sophisticated strategies. How does this approach compare with DSGE models? House argues that the key difference lies in assumptions about rationality and self-interest:
See on rajivsethi.blogspot.it

16
Feb
15

“Let’s shame them!”: part and parcel of the dangerous seat-of-the-pants, evidence-free style of risk communication we are using to protect univ…

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

A thoughtful correspondent asked me what I thought of proposals to “shame” parents who don’t vaccinate their children.  I’m against doing that. Actually, I’m not opposed to “shaming” when it makes sense; but I am opposed to doing anything in public policy that disregards the best evidence we have on the challenges we face and the best strategies for combatting them. Here is what I had to say about why shaming parents who don’t vaccinate should be viewed as falling into that category:

I myself don’t see any value in shaming here.

The conflict-entrepreneur, anti-vax organizers deserve ridicule and are awful people etc. But denouncing orshaming them actually only gives them exactly what they want – more attention, which in turn does make more members of the public agitated and confused. 

 

See on culturalcognition.net

16
Feb
15

Human Metasystem Transition (HMST) Theory

See on Scoop.itGlobal Brain

Metasystem transitions are events representing the evolutionary emergence of a higher level of organization through the integration of subsystems into a higher “metasystem” (A1+A2+A3=B).

See on jetpress.org

16
Feb
15

Sociological (de)motivation – Contexts

See on Scoop.itBrain Tricks: Belief, Bias, and Blindspots

Contexts is a quarterly magazine that makes cutting-edge social research accessible to general readers.

See on contexts.org

16
Feb
15

Why We Remember So Many Things Wrong – The New Yorker

See on Scoop.itBehaviourWorks threads

If we remember dramatic and emotional moments so well, why do most people forget what they were doing when the Challenger exploded?

See on newyorker.com

16
Feb
15

7 Ways Meditation Can Actually Change The Brain

See on Scoop.itSocial Neuroscience Advances

Science is showing that meditation is very deserving of its newfound fame.

See on forbes.com

16
Feb
15

How to get a no-nonsense weather forecast – Decision Science News

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

How to get your own no-nonsense local weather forecast graph for people who understand graphs and probability.

People ask us, “You folks at Decision Science News,here do you get your US weather forecasts?”

Because we like graphs and probabilities, we go to a page the US National Weather Service puts out that tells us just what we want to know. It tells us, for every hour in the next few days, the predicted temperature, the chance of precipitation, the predicted amount of rain, the predicted amount of snow and that’s it.

 
See on decisionsciencenews.com




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