Archivio per 22 febbraio 2015

22
Feb
15

Press Release: EU project offers solutions to improve intelligence analysis | EUROSINT FORUM

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The RECOBIA project found break-through solutions to improve the quality of intelligence production and delivers applicable solutions to address the human factor in intelligence.

The RECOBIA project found break-trough results in the field of intelligence and in mitigating the negative effect of cognitive biases. The three-year research project identifies ways to improve the work of intelligence officers by reducing the negative effect of those unconscious cognitive mechanisms. RECOBIA came to a close end of January and the findings are now available to interested parties.

The project team deconstructed the activities of intelligence officers and clustered them into Key Intelligence Tasks (KITs). Those KITs describe for the first time what intelligence officers actually do – both from an intelligence as well as from a psychological perspective. The KITs were used to identify the situation and activities in which cognitive biases are likely to impact intelligence officers. Finally, the project team developed mitigation strategies, which are easy to implement and will boost the quality of analysis.

 
See on eurosint.eu

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22
Feb
15

Employing a social media monitoring tool as an OSINT platform for Intelligence Defence & Securit BY PAUL BRELSFORD

See on Scoop.itOSINT : sources, tools and methods

See on eurosint.eu

22
Feb
15

Krypt3ia

See on Scoop.itOSINT : sources, tools and methods

(Greek: κρυπτεία / krupteía, from κρυπτός / kruptós, “hidden, secret things”)

See on krypt3ia.wordpress.com

22
Feb
15

Investor Psychology- Daniel Kahneman

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Decision theorist Howard Raiffa [1968] introduces useful distinctions among three approaches to the analysis of decisions. Normative analysis is concerned with the rational solution to the decision problem. It defines the ideal that actual decisions should strive to approximate. Descriptive analysis is concerned with the manner in which real people actually make decisions. Prescriptive analysis is concerned with practical advice and help that people could use to make more rational decisions. Financial advising is a prescriptive activity whose main objective should be to guide investors to make decisions that best serve their interests. To advise effectively, advisors must be guided by an accurate picture of the cognitive and emotional weaknesses of investors that relate to making investment decisions: their occasionally faulty assessment of their own interests and true wishes, the relevant facts that they tend to ignore, and the limits of their ability to accept advice and to live with the decisions they make. Our article sketches some parts of that picture, as they have emerged from research on judgment, decisionmaking and regret over the last three decades

See on covenantcap.com

22
Feb
15

The Skin in the Game Heuristic – Nassim Taleb |

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Standard economic theory makes an allowance for the agency problem, but not the compounding of moral hazard in the presence of informational opacity, particularly in what concerns high-impact events in fat tailed domains (under slow convergence for the law of large numbers). Nor did it look at exposure as a filter that removes nefarious risk takers from the system so they stop harming others. (In the language of probability, skin in the game creates an absorbing state for the agent, not just the principal). But the ancients did; so did many aspects of moral philosophy. We propose a global and morally mandatory heuristic that anyone involved in an action which can possibly generate harm for others, even probabilistically, should be required to be exposed to some damage, regardless of context. While perhaps not sufficient, the heuristic is certainly necessary hence mandatory. It is supposed to counter voluntary and involuntary risk hiding − and risk transfer − in the tails. We link the rule to various philosophical approaches to ethics and moral luck.

See on covenantcap.com

22
Feb
15

Surprising ways to change behaviour – RSA

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Many of us realise that we could be getting better value by switching utility providers, yet never actually muster up the energy to make the switch. Here we make some informed guesses about what could be done to overcome this inertia.  

Last week we wrote about how hard behaviour change can be in general, and specifically in the context of switching utility providers – even if it could result in a better deal. The tendency to stick to the status quo, lack of urgency, present bias, and social norms come together in a perfect storm resulting in a lack of appetite to switch utility providers. So if this is the case, how can we encourage switching providers and changing behaviour more generally?

See on thersa.org

22
Feb
15

Camerer, Colin, La Neuroeconomia

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Nel XX secolo la teoria economica è stata al centro di intensi dibattiti che ne hanno prodotto una significativa evoluzione. La radicalità dello scontro è stata tale da mettere in discussione la natura stessa dell’economia, arrivando oggi a sviluppi teorici ed empirici sostanzialmente inattesi. Per ripercorrere brevemente le fasi di questo percorso è opportuno iniziare da quando, alla vigilia della seconda guerra mondiale, diversi economisti europei (come Oskar Morgenstern o John von Neumann) emigrarono negli Stati Uniti. Questi studiosi lasciarono in Europa un terreno di discussione ampio e variegato, anche geograficamente, che tuttavia andò perdendo di rilevanza proprio in favore delle nuove scuole anglosassoni. Si formò un approccio unitario e spesso autoreferenziale allo studio economico: l’economia si costituì come una disciplina matematica in cui la maggior parte degli sforzi degli studiosi consisteva nella costruzione di assiomi che definissero con precisione le regole di comportamento degli agenti economici. Una tale impostazione, insieme ad una specifica assunzione comportamentale, fondò in sostanza la visione predominante del secolo, nota come Teoria della scelta razionale (TSR).

Già la nascita dell’economia sperimentale, avvenuta intorno agli anni ’50, aveva indebolito l’approccio tipico della TSR. Gli agenti impegnati negli esperimenti di laboratorio avevano mostrato di deviare dall’assunzione di razionalità con frequenze che risultavano pericolose per la stabilità del sistema. Poco dopo, l’avvento delle scienze cognitive, un approccio interdisciplinare (cui partecipano la linguistica, la filosofia della mente e del linguaggio, la psicologia cognitiva, le neuroscienze, l’intelligenza artificiale e, a partire dagli anni ’70, l’economia cognitiva) che pone l’accento sullo studio della mente in relazione al comportamento, aveva iniziato a mostrare agli economisti la possibilità di integrare il loro corpus di conoscenze con quello di studiosi di discipline come la psicologia cognitiva o le neuroscienze. Un convinto assertore dell’utilità della collaborazione tra l’economia e le due discipline menzionate è proprio Colin Camerer, autore, con George Loewenstein e Drazen Prelec, dell’articolo “Neuroeconomics: How Neuroscience Can Inform Economics” (2005). Nel 2008 Il Sole 24 ore ha riunito “Neuroeconomics” (già apparso in traduzione italiana presso la rivista Sistemi Intelligenti) e il più recente articolo “The Case for Mindful Economics” (2007), a firma del solo Camerer, in un’unica pubblicazione intitolata La Neuroeconomia, offrendo a un più vasto pubblico italiano un pezzo importante del dibattito internazionale sull’economia e sulle scienze cognitive. I due articoli, che nella sostanza possono essere considerati perfettamente uniformi essendo il secondo in qualche misura un aggiornamento del primo, argomentano in favore di un’impostazione mindful (in quanto opposta a quella mindless, adottata da Gul e Pesendorfer nel 2005) allo studio economico, e cioè di una sua apertura verso metodi e concetti di orientamento specificamente neuroscientifico.

See on recensionifilosofiche.it




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