Archivio per 26 febbraio 2015

26
Feb
15

Probabilistic cost efficiency and bounded rationality in the newsvendor model

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
Abstract: In this paper we establish a link between probabilistic cost efficiency and bounded rationality in the newsvendor model. This establishes a framework where bounded rationality can be examined rigorously by statistical methods. The paper offers a relatively deep theoretical analysis of underorders/overorders in the newsvendor model. The theory is supported by empirical findings from our analysis of empirical data from laboratory experiments. In particular, we observe that underorders are systematically larger than overorders, an issue that our theoretical model explains. From statistical tests we conclude that all variability in our data can be explained by probabilistic cost efficiency and risk aversion.
See on brage.bibsys.no

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26
Feb
15

Trust, Cooperative Behavior And Economic Success: When Trust Is The Capital Of The Person?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
Abstract: This article presents the results of study dedicated to the interrelation of trust, cooperative behavior and the size of the winning prize in the multi-way decision modified prisoners’ dilemma. The experiment was organized using a specially designed computer program. The study involved six groups of participants and each group consisted of 7 players. The experiment consisted of a series of 15 rounds and included preliminary and final testing. The study found that cooperative behavior within the members in the group had fallen during 11 rounds, but there was a tendency to improve it. The trust level of an individual and his/her choice of cooperative strategy in the first series of the experiment are interrelated. Generalized trust is a rather stable construct, but it does not remain unchanged with an actual reduction of cooperative behavior. 
See on hse.ru

26
Feb
15

Decisions are reached in the brain by the same method used to crack the Nazi Enigma code

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The highlight of the award winning film, “The Imitation Game”, is when Alan Turing and colleagues devise an ingenious statistical method that eventually helped decipher the Nazis’ Enigma code. This breakthrough allowed Allied intelligence to read previously unavailable German military positions and actions, vastly shortening World War II. Interestingly, a team of neuroscientists at Columbia University found that more or less the same statistical method applied by Turing and co. is used by the brain to make any kind of decision, be it going left instead of right in an intersection or placing a higher bet during a high raise power game instead of folding.

See on zmescience.com

26
Feb
15

Yes, You’re Irrational, and Yes, That’s OK – Issue 21: Information – Nautilus

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

It’s all about leveraging the unconscious factors that drive 95 percent of consumer decision-making.

It has created a large and growing list of ways that humans diverge from economic rationality. Researchers have found that all sorts of logically inconsequential circumstances—rain, sexual arousal (induced and assessed by experimenters with Saran-wrapped laptops), or just the number “67” popping up in conversation—can alter the value we assign to things. For example, with “priming effects,” irrelevant or unconsciously processed information prompts people to assign value by association (seeing classrooms and lockers makes people slightly more likely to support school funding). With “framing effects,” the way a choice is presented affects people’s evaluation: Kahneman and Tversky famously found that people prefer a disease-fighting policy that saves 400 out of 600 people to a policy that lets 200 people die, though logically the two are the same. While mainstream economists are still wrestling with these ideas, outside of academe there is little debate: The behaviorists have won.

See on nautil.us

26
Feb
15

Why team bonuses are more effective

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Companies get it wrong when they think workers simply calculate the tradeoff between effort and money. 

When my kids were small, we participated in a neighborhood carpool. One morning, on my turn, my son had to stay at home due to an illness, and I was going to drive only the neighbors’ children to school. The routine morning phone call to my mom ended with the following request: “Drive safely! Those are someone else’s kids!”

Crazy as it sounded, my mom was conveying a commonly held moral concern—that I should be more respectful of things that are dear to my friend than dear to me. Most of us, surprisingly, share this stance. And it’s not necessarily because we are altruists, but because it serves us well from a social point of view.

Imagine, as another example, that you forget to pay your parking ticket and incur a $60 added fine. Now suppose instead that you forget to pay your friend’s ticket (who has asked you to do so since he is away on vacation) and you incur that same fine for your friend. Which would make you feel worse?

 
See on washingtonpost.com




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