Archivio per febbraio 2015



27
Feb
15

Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change

See on Scoop.itPapers

A great deal of research to inform environmental conservation and management takes a predict-and-prescribe strategy in which improving forecasts about future states of ecosystems is the primary goal. But sufficiently thorough understanding of ecosystems needed to reduce deep uncertainties is probably not achievable, seriously limiting the potential effectiveness of the predict-and-prescribe approach. Instead, research should integrate more closely with policy development to identify the range of alternative plausible futures and develop strategies that are robust across these scenarios and responsive to unpredictable ecosystem dynamics.

Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change
Daniel E. Schindler, Ray Hilborn

Science 27 February 2015:
Vol. 347 no. 6225 pp. 953-954
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1261824

See on sciencemag.org

Annunci
27
Feb
15

Empirical test of a quantum probability model for question order effects found in survey research

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Abstract This article develops and empirically tests a quantum probability model for question order effects observed in survey research. First, the general theoretical assumptions are  presented; second, an exact parameter free prediction is derived; third, the results from four surveys and one experiment are used to empirically test the prediction; fourth, a new index is derived to measure similarity between questions; finally, we describe the main conditions under which order effects are predicted to occur. In conclusion, quantum theory, initially invented to explain order effects on measurements in physics, provides a powerful explanation for order effects of survey questions too

See on mypage.iu.edu

27
Feb
15

The danger of artificial stupidity

See on Scoop.itBrain Tricks: Belief, Bias, and Blindspots

by J. Mark Bishop It is not often that you are obliged to proclaim a much-loved international genius wrong, but in the alarming prediction made recently regarding Artificial Intelligence and the fu…

See on scientiasalon.wordpress.com

27
Feb
15

Neurogenesis: How To Grow New Brain Cells – PsyBlog

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Adults can still grow new brain cells – neurogenesis – but what are they for?

For a long time scientists believed that neurogenesis was impossible: adults had all the brain cells they were ever going to have.

Now we know that’s not true.

In fact, we continue to grow new brain cells into adulthood.

The race is on to find out what these brain cells are for and how we can grow more of them.

A new review of the scientific literature, published in the journal Trends in Cognitive Sciences, argues that the growth of new cells aids adaptation to the environment (Opendak & Gould, 2015).

See on spring.org.uk

27
Feb
15

Social Nudges: Their Mechanisms and Justification

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

In this paper I argue that the use of social nudges, policy interventions to induce voluntary cooperation in social dilemma situations, can be defended against two ethical objections which I call objections from coherence and autonomy. Specifically I

See on academia.edu

26
Feb
15

Probabilistic cost efficiency and bounded rationality in the newsvendor model

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
Abstract: In this paper we establish a link between probabilistic cost efficiency and bounded rationality in the newsvendor model. This establishes a framework where bounded rationality can be examined rigorously by statistical methods. The paper offers a relatively deep theoretical analysis of underorders/overorders in the newsvendor model. The theory is supported by empirical findings from our analysis of empirical data from laboratory experiments. In particular, we observe that underorders are systematically larger than overorders, an issue that our theoretical model explains. From statistical tests we conclude that all variability in our data can be explained by probabilistic cost efficiency and risk aversion.
See on brage.bibsys.no

26
Feb
15

Trust, Cooperative Behavior And Economic Success: When Trust Is The Capital Of The Person?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
Abstract: This article presents the results of study dedicated to the interrelation of trust, cooperative behavior and the size of the winning prize in the multi-way decision modified prisoners’ dilemma. The experiment was organized using a specially designed computer program. The study involved six groups of participants and each group consisted of 7 players. The experiment consisted of a series of 15 rounds and included preliminary and final testing. The study found that cooperative behavior within the members in the group had fallen during 11 rounds, but there was a tendency to improve it. The trust level of an individual and his/her choice of cooperative strategy in the first series of the experiment are interrelated. Generalized trust is a rather stable construct, but it does not remain unchanged with an actual reduction of cooperative behavior. 
See on hse.ru




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