Archivio per 3 marzo 2015

03
Mar
15

Physicists make ‘weather forecasts’ for economies

See on Scoop.itPapers

The development of some countries is as predictable as steady winds, but for others it is more chaotic, physicists find.

See on nature.com

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03
Mar
15

Could Apple Buy a Third of the World’s Gold? – Frank Holmes

See on Scoop.itGold and What Moves it.

Frank Holmes picks up on Apple’s new watch for which the top end model may contain as much as two ounces of gold and for which Apple reckons it may sell as many as 1 million units a month!  That’s …

See on lawrieongold.com

03
Mar
15

Inspector Insight » 5 (or 10) Small Changes that can help you Influence Behaviour

See on Scoop.itBehaviourWorks threads

See on inspectorinsight.com

03
Mar
15

Richard Russell – The Shocking Secret Central Planners Are Hiding From The World – King World News

See on Scoop.itGold and What Moves it.

Richard Russell: "I scour the newspapers for hints of coming turning points. By my calculations, the markets remain bullish. Massive amounts of money have gone into the US dollar and US Treasury Bonds. New record highs in the Dow attract the retail public.

My Largest Investment

I follow numerous gold items daily. Something is going on with gold. There’s a secret that’s causing every central bank plus Russia and China to be buying gold.

See on kingworldnews.com

03
Mar
15

A model of cognitive and operationa memory of organizations in changing worlds

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

This work analyzes and models the nature and dynamics of organizational memory, as such an essential ingredient of organizational capabilities. There are two sides to it, namely a cognitive side, involving the beliefs and interpretative frameworks by which the organization categorizes the states of the world and its own internal states, and an operational one, including routines and procedures that store the knowledge of how to do things. We formalize both types of memory by means of evolving systems of condition-action rules and investigate their performance in different environments characterized by varying degrees of complexity and non-stationarity. Broadly speaking, in simple and stable environments memory does not matter, provided it satisfies some minimal requirements. In more complex and gradually changing ones more memory is better. However there is some critical level of environmental instability above which forgetfulness is evolutionary superior from the point of view of long term performance. Moreover, above some (modest) complexity threshold stable and robust cognitive categorizations and routinized behavior emerge. 

See on lem.sssup.it

03
Mar
15

The leadership of emergence – A complex systems leadership theory of emergence at successive organizational levels

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Complexity science reframes leadership by focusing on the dynamic interactions between all individuals, explaining how those interactions can, under certain conditions, produce emergent outcomes. We develop aLeadership of Emergence using this approach, through an analysis of three empirical studies which document emergence in distinct contexts. Each of these studies identifies the same four “conditions” foremergence: the presence of a Dis-equilibrium state, Amplifying actions, Recombination/“Self-organization”, and Stabilizing feedback. From these studies we also show how these conditions can be generated through nine specific behaviors which leaders can enact, including: Disrupt existing patterns through embracing uncertainty and creating controversy, Encourage novelty by allowing experiments and supporting collective action, Provide sense-making and sense-giving through the artful use of language and symbols, and Stabilize the system by Integrating local constraints. Finally, we suggest ways for advancing a meso-model of leadership, and show how our findings can improve complexity science applications in management.

 
See on docs.google.com

03
Mar
15

Self-Organization, Emergence, and Constraint in Complex Natural Systems

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Contemporary complexity theory has been instrumental in providing novel rigorous definitions for some classic philosophical concepts, including emergence. In an attempt to provide an account of emergence that is consistent with complexity and dynamical systems theory, several authors have turned to the notion ofconstraints on state transitions. Drawing on complexity theory directly, this paper builds on those accounts, further developing the constraint-based interpretation of emergence and arguing that such accounts recover many of the features of more traditional accounts. We show that the constraint-based account of emergence also leads naturally into a meaningful definition of self-organization, another concept that has received increasing attention recently. Along the way, we distinguish between order and organization, two concepts which are frequently conflated. Finally, we consider possibilities for future research in the philosophy ofcomplex systems, as well as applications of the distinctions made in this paper.
See on drive.google.com




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