Archivio per 16 marzo 2015

16
Mar
15

oTree – An Open-Source Platform for Laboratory, Online, and Field Experiments

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
Abstract: oTree is an open-source and online software for implementing interactive experiments in the laboratory, online, the field or combinations thereof. oTree does not require installation of software on subjects’ devices; it can run on any device that has a web browser, be that a desktop computer, a tablet or a smartphone. Deployment can be internet-based without a shared local network, or local-network-based even without internet access. For coding, Python is used, a popular, open-source programming language. www.oTree.org provides the source code, a library of standard game templates and demo games which can be played by anyone.
See on mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

16
Mar
15

How Do Consumers Choose Health Insurance? – An Experiment on Heterogeneity in Attribute Tastes and Risk Preferences

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
Abstract: Recent health policy reforms try to increase consumer choice. We use a laboratory experiment to analyze consumers’ tastes in typical contract attributes of health insurances and to investigate their relationship with individual risk preferences. First, subjects make consecutive insurance choices varying in the number and types of contracts offered. Then, we elicit individual risk preferences according to Cumulative Prospect Theory. Applying a latent class model to the choice data, reveals five classes of consumers with considerable heterogeneity in tastes for contract attributes. From this, we infer distinct behavioral strategies for each class. The majority of subjects use minimax strategies focusing on contract attributes rather than evaluating probabilities in order to maximize expected payoffs. Moreover, we show that using these strategies helps consumers to choose contracts, which are in line with their individual risk preferences. Our results reveal valuable insights for policy makers of how to achieve efficient consumer choice.
See on repec.rwi-essen.de

16
Mar
15

Co-evolutionary Dynamics of Collective Action with Signaling for a Quorum

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Author Summary From humans to social insects and bacteria, decision-making is often influenced by some form of collective signaling, be it quorum, information exchange, pledges or announcements. Here we investigate how such signaling systems evolve when collective action entails a public good, and how meanings co-evolve with individual choices, given Nature’s most prevalent states. We find a rich scenario, showing how natural selection is able to evolve a costly quorum signaling system that allows individuals to coordinate their action so as to provide the appropriate response to different states of Nature. We show that signaling robustly and selectively promotes cooperative collective action when coordinated action is most needed. In light of our results, and despite the complexity that collective action relying on quorum signaling may entail, it is not so surprising how signaling is a ubiquitous property of the living world.

See on journals.plos.org

16
Mar
15

DeloitteVoice: The Last-Mile Problem: How Data Science And Behavioral Science Can Work Together

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

What do “Moneyball”—applying data analytics to make more economically efficient decisions—and “nudge”— using principles from psychology and behavioral economics to promote decisions that are consistent with people’s long-term goals—have in common? Quite a bit, as it turns out.

Business analytics and the science of behavioral nudges are different types of responses to the observation that people are predictably irrational. Predictive analytics aims to guide people toward “rational” behavior by using data to correct for mental biases. Behavioral techniques aim to nudge people toward certain actions by designing choice environments in ways that go with, rather than against, the grain of human psychology.

The science of behavioral nudges should find a place in the toolkit of mainstream predictive analytics. Predictive models, however strongly backed by analytics, can only point the end user in the right direction—and no model can deliver the benefits it is designed to deliver unless appropriately acted upon. It is at this “last mile” stage that most programs meet with the greatest resistance, and behavioral nudges can play a part in solving this problem.

See on forbes.com

16
Mar
15

Why Economists Cling to Discredited Ideas

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Free-market theory may be at odds with reality, but it fits the needs of the rich and the powerful. Despite the practical failures of free-market economics, too many mainstream economists have continued to embrace simplistic ideas about how the economy works. Such ideas are often rooted more in ideology than in evidence. These beliefs and the policies that follow led directly to the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession. They also centrally contributed to the nation’s subpar performance beginning in the late 1970s, and to our widening inequality. They continue to endanger America’s economic health.  

The mainstream of the profession claims to qualify oversimplified free-market ideas. But when it comes to key policy choices, the premise that markets are efficient usually trumps a more complex analysis. Thus, most mainstream economists are usually for less regulation even when more is required. They argue for reducing deficits even when expanded public outlay is indicated. They favor letting markets set wages without many safeguards for workers, even when the result proves neither equitable nor efficient. The consensus in the profession is that widening inequality must be the result of deficiencies in the skills of the workforce, rather than the result of structural disadvantages inadequately addressed by government. 

See on prospect.org




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