Archivio per 13 maggio 2015

13
Mag
15

IL MODELLO TAVISTOCK E L’ORGANIZZAZIONE NASCOSTA

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Ciascuno di noi passa molta parte della sua vita come membro di gruppi e di organizzazioni, lavorando e interagendo con gli altri. Questa esperienza può risultare estremamente piacevole e ripagante ma talvolta anche altamente frustrante e dolorosa: può favorire o spegnere la creatività, può promuovere la collaborazione o originare conflitti (Perini e Vera, 2001). Le relazioni che gli individui instaurano tra loro e con l‟organizzazione di cui fanno parte sono in gran parte regolate dal compito primario di quest‟ultima, cioè dalle finalità razionali ed esplicite per cui essa è stata creata, ma il loro destino dipende significativamente dalle emozioni in gioco e da processi che si svolgono nelle “zone d‟ombra” dell‟organizzazione, processi che sono in larga misura informali, inconsci ed irrazionali. Siamo abituati a pensare che tutte le organizzazioni sociali, quelle rivolte ai bisogni della persona come quelle rivolte alla produzione di beni, siano state create e vengano gestite sulla base di pianificazioni, strategie e politiche razionali, a partire da concezioni teoriche fondate e da pratiche manageriali sperimentate e verificabili. Nella maggior parte dei casi le cose stanno effettivamente così. L‟esperienza dimostra però che in certe situazioni, nonostante la razionalità del progetto originario, l‟adeguatezza delle risorse investite e l‟acquisizione di un’ampia autorità e di una sufficiente base di consenso, qualcosa va storto e la macchina organizzativa inopinatamente si inceppa: succede allora che buone politiche non funzionino come dovrebbero, che procedure chiarissime vengano applicate in modo errato o confuso, che innovazioni necessarie e concordate incontrino resistenze impreviste, che regole e disposizioni ragionevoli vengano disattese, a volte dalle persone stesse che le avevano dettate. 

See on w3.uniroma1.it

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13
Mag
15

CERN ALERT: Scientists Talk of Black Holes, Parallel Universes, Extra Dimensions

See on Scoop.itConscience et champ – Field and consciousness

CERN ALERT: Scientists Talk of Black Holes, Parallel Universes, Extra Dimensions (by nemesis maturity). Source video nemesis maturity: …

See on youtube.com

13
Mag
15

When Smaller is Bette The Effect of Bank Size on Small-Business Lendin

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Research by Raghuram Rajan

According to new research, small banks have a comparative advantage in the arena of small-business lending because they are better able to collect and act on so-called “soft information” than large banks. 

Due to changes in technology and the ongoing consolidation of the commercial banking industry over the past thirty years, the relationship between banks and borrowers has been growing more distant and impersonal. These changes raise questions not only about whether large banks will behave differently than the smaller banks they are displacing, but about the differences between large and small organizations as a whole.

One reason to believe that large organizations may behave differently than small organizations is that they may have different abilities to process hard and soft information. Hard information, such as audited earnings, is easily captured on paper. Soft information-intangible factors such as a potential client’s strength of character-is difficult to communicate.

The study “Does Function Follow Organizational Form? Evidence From the Lending Practices of Large and Small Banks,” by Raghuram Rajan, a professor at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, Allen N. Berger and Nathan H. Miller of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Mitchell A. Peterson of Northwestern University, and Jeremy C. Stein of Harvard University examines whether large banks do as well as small banks in small-business lending, an activity that relies heavily on collecting soft information about borrowers.

See on chicagobooth.edu

13
Mag
15

Save More Tommoro A Simple Plan to Increase Retirement Savin Research by Richard H. Thaler

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The Save More Tomorrow plan allows employees to allocate a portion of their future salary increases toward retirement savings. 

In the past decade, there has been a rapid shift among employers from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans. As a result, employees now bear much more responsibility for their retirement savings.

Under defined benefit pension plans, retirement benefits depend on how long an employee has worked at a given company and his or her salary by the time they retire. Firms using these plans are essentially doing the saving for their employees. Under defined contribution plans, which are much easier for companies to administer, employees must take the initiative to join. Retirement benefits depend on how much the employee decides to contribute and how he or she chooses to invest that money.

While defined contribution plans such as 401(k) plans offer increased flexibility for those who enroll, studies have found that some employees at firms that only offer defined contribution plans contribute little or nothing to the plans.

 
See on chicagobooth.edu

13
Mag
15

Fooled by Experience

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

What you think you’ve learned may be wrong. A guide to figuring out the real lessons.

We rely on the weight of experience to make judgments and decisions. We interpret the past—what we’ve seen and what we’ve been told—to chart a course for the future, secure in the wisdom of our insights. After all, didn’t our ability to make sense of what we’ve been through get us where we are now? It’s reasonable that we go back to the same well to make new decisions.

It could also be a mistake.

Experience seems like a reliable guide, yet sometimes it fools us instead of making us wiser.

The problem is that we view the past through numerous filters that distort our perceptions. As a result, our interpretations of experience are biased, and the judgments and decisions we base on those interpretations can be misguided. Even so, we persist in believing that we have gleaned the correct insights from our own experience and from the accounts of other people.

See on hbr.org

13
Mag
15

Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1/N Portfolio Strategy?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond
Abstract

We evaluate the out-of-sample performance of the sample-based mean-variance model, and its extensions designed to reduce estimation error, relative to the naive 1/N portfolio. Of the 14 models we evaluate across seven empirical datasets, none is consistently better than the 1/N rule in terms of Sharpe ratio, certainty-equivalent return, or turnover, which indicates that, out of sample, the gain from optimal diversification is more than offset by estimation error. Based on parameters calibrated to the US equity market, our analytical results and simulations show that the estimation window needed for the sample-based mean-variance strategy and its extensions to outperform the 1/N benchmark is around 3000 months for a portfolio with 25 assets and about 6000 months for a portfolio with 50 assets. This suggests that there are still many “miles to go” before the gains promised by optimal portfolio choice can actually be realized out of sample.

See on rfs.oxfordjournals.org

13
Mag
15

Helping Doctors and Patient Make Sense of Health Statistics

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

SUMMARY Many doctors, patients, journalists, and politicians alike do not understand what health statistics mean or draw wrong conclusions without noticing. Collective statistical illiteracy refers to the widespread inability to understand the meaning of numbers. For instance, many citizens are unaware that higher survival rates with cancer screening do not imply longer life, or that the statement that mammography screening reduces the risk of dying from breast cancer by 25% in fact means that 1 less woman out of 1,000 will die of the disease. We provide evidence that statistical illiteracy (a) is common to patients, journalists, and physicians; (b) is created by nontransparent framing of information that is sometimes an unintentional result of lack of understanding but can also be a result of intentional efforts to manipulate or persuade people; and © can have serious consequences for health. The causes of statistical illiteracy should not be attributed to cognitive biases alone, but to the emotional nature of the doctor–patient relationship and conflicts of interest in the healthcare system. The classic doctor–patient relation is based on (the physician’s) paternalism and (the patient’s) trust in authority, which make statistical literacy seem unnecessary; so does the traditional combination of determinism (physicians who seek causes, not chances) and the illusion of certainty (patients who seek certainty when there is none). We show that information pamphlets, Web sites, leaflets distributed to doctors by the pharmaceutical industry, and even medical journals often report evidence in nontransparent forms that suggest big benefits of featured interventions and small harms. Without understanding the numbers involved, the public is susceptible to political and commercial manipulation of their anxieties and hopes, which undermines the goals of informed consent and shared decision making.

See on psychologicalscience.org




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