Archivio per 14 Mag 2015

14
Mag
15

On the Optimality and Predictability of Cultural Markets with Social Influence

See on Scoop.itPapers

Social influence is ubiquitous in cultural markets, from book recommendations in Amazon, to song popularities in iTunes and the ranking of newspaper articles in the online edition of the New York Times to mention only a few. Yet social influence is often presented in a bad light, often because it supposedly increases market unpredictability.
Here we study a model of trial-offer markets, in which participants try products and later decide whether to purchase. We consider a simple policy which ranks the products by quality when presenting them to market participants. We show that, in this setting, market efficiency always benefits from social influence. Moreover, we prove that the market converges almost surely to a monopoly for the product of highest quality, making the market both predictable and asymptotically optimal. Computational experiments confirm that the quality ranking policy identifies “blockbusters” in reasonable time, outperforms other policies, and is highly predictable. These results indicate that social influence does not necessarily increase market unpredicatibility. The outcome really depends on how social influence is used.

On the Optimality and Predictability of Cultural Markets with Social Influence
Pascal Van Hentenryck, Andres Abeliuk, Franco Berbeglia, Gerardo Berbeglia

http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.02469

See on arxiv.org

Annunci
14
Mag
15

5 Improvisation Exercises for Improving Your Communication Skills

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Life rarely follows a script, instead it’s a lot of improvisation. Here are 5 great improvisation exercises for improving your communication skills.

When it comes to communication, we like to think if only we follow the right script and say the right words then things will always work out the way we want.

Asking a girl out on a date? I need that perfect opening line. Trying to get a new job? I need to give the perfect answers in my interview. Want to persuade someone? I need to have the perfect argument in my head.

But life rarely follows a script. Instead, it’s a whole lot of improvisation.

We can never know exactly how a situation will unfold. So we need to be able to respond to information from our environment in real-time, and adapt to each situation as we go along.

There are no perfect answers. There are no perfect words. There are no perfect scripts that will give you the same exact results every time.

See on theemotionmachine.com

14
Mag
15

Duality between Temporal Networks and Signals: Extraction of the Temporal Network Structures

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

We develop a framework to track the structure of temporal networks with a signal processing approach. The method is based on the duality between networks and signals using a multidimensional scaling technique. This enables a study of the network structure using frequency patterns of the corresponding signals. An extension is proposed for temporal networks, thereby enabling a tracking of the network structure over time. A method to automatically extract the most significant frequency patterns and their activation coefficients over time is then introduced, using nonnegative matrix factorization of the temporal spectra. The framework, inspired by audio decomposition, allows transforming back these frequency patterns into networks, to highlight the evolution of the underlying structure of the network over time. The effectiveness of the method is first evidenced on a toy example, prior being used to study a temporal network of face-to-face contacts. The extraction of sub-networks highlights significant structures decomposed on time intervals.

 
See on arxiv.org

14
Mag
15

Unless You Are Spock, Irrelevant Things Matter in Economic Behavior

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

People are not as rational as economists would like to believe, but there are ways to nudge people into doing what’s best for them. 

Early in my teaching career I managed to get most of the students in my class mad at me. A midterm exam caused the problem.

I wanted the exam to sort out the stars, the average Joes and the duds, so it had to be hard and have a wide dispersion of scores. I succeeded in writing such an exam, but when the students got their results they were in an uproar. Their principal complaint was that the average score was only 72 points out of 100.

What was odd about this reaction was that I had already explained that the average numerical score on the exam had absolutely no effect on the distribution of letter grades. We employed a curve in which the average grade was a B+, and only a tiny number of students received grades below a C. I told the class this, but it had no effect on the students’ mood. They still hated my exam, and they were none too happy with me either. As a young professor worried about keeping my job, I wasn’t sure what to do.

See on nytimes.com




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