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Nick Naumof: The (only) Question that Could Have Accurately Predicted the Winner in Recent Elections in Romania

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

I guess (some of) you know that, last Sunday, Romanians elected a new president. This is not news. The news is that the under-dog challenger won against all odds and predictions. All pre-election polls predicted that the favourite – the incumbent Prime Minister – will win and at a comfortable difference. But, things didn’t happen as expected. The opposition’s candidate won at a very comfortable difference – 54.5% to 45.5% (roughly 9% of expressed votes) which in absolute numbers represents more than 1.100.000 votes. Now, that the results are known, there are a lot of people explaining how it happened. Yeah… Hindsight Bias! There is, however, a question – methodology – that could have predicted the winner with accuracy.
See on naumof.blogspot.it



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