Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation modeling technique that has seen a number of applications in the last few years, including applications to real-world business problems. After the basic principles of agent-based simulation are briefly introduced, its four areas of application are discussed by using real-world applications: flow simulation, organizational simulation, market simulation, and diffusion simulation. For each category, one or several business applications are described and analyzed.

In agent-based modeling (ABM), a system is modeled as a collection of autonomous decision-making entities called agents. Each agent individually assesses its situation and makes decisions on the basis of a set of rules. Agents may execute various behaviors appropriate for the system they represent—for example, producing, consuming, or selling. Repetitive competitive interactions between agents are a feature of agent-based modeling, which relies on the power of computers to explore dynamics out of the reach of pure mathematical methods (1, 2). At the simplest level, an agent-based model consists of a system of agents and the relationships between them. Even a simple agent-based model can exhibit complex behavior patterns (3) and provide valuable information about the dynamics of the real-world system that it emulates. In addition, agents may be capable of evolving, allowing unanticipated behaviors to emerge. Sophisticated ABM sometimes incorporates neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, or other learning techniques to allow realistic learning and adaptation.

ABM is a mindset more than a technology. The ABM mindset consists of describing a system from the perspective of its constituent units. A number of researchers think that the alternative to ABM is traditional differential equation modeling; this is wrong, as a set of differential equations, each describing the dynamics of one of the system’s constituent units, is an agent-based model. A synonym of ABM would be microscopic modeling, and an alternative would be macroscopic modeling. As the ABM mindset is starting to enjoy significant popularity, it is a good time to redefine why it is useful and when ABM should be used. These are the questions this paper addresses, first by reviewing and classifying the benefits of ABM and then by providing a variety of examples in which the benefits will be clearly described. What the reader will be able to take home is a clear view of when and how to use ABM. One of the reasons underlying ABM’s popularity is its ease of implementation: indeed, once one has heard about ABM, it is easy to program an agent-based model. Because the technique is easy to use, one may wrongly think the concepts are easy to master. But although ABM is technically simple, it is also conceptually deep. This unusual combination often leads to improper use of ABM.

See on pnas.org

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settembre: 2015
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