Archivio per febbraio 2016

27
Feb
16

Step by Step to Stability and Peace in Syria

See on Scoop.itPapers

The revolution and Civil War in Syria has led to substantial death and suffering, a massive refugee crisis, and growth of ISIS extremism and its terror attacks globally. Conflict between disparate groups is ongoing. Here we propose that interventions should be pursued to stop specific local conflicts, creating safe zones, that can be expanded gradually and serve as examples for achieving a comprehensive solution for safety, peace and stable local governance in Syria.

Raphael Parens, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Step by step to stability and peace in Syria, NECSI (February 9, 2016).

http://www.necsi.edu/research/ethnicviolence/stepbystep.html

See on necsi.edu

27
Feb
16

Complexity theory and financial regulation

See on Scoop.itPapers

Traditional economic theory could not explain, much less predict, the near collapse of the financial system and its long-lasting effects on the global economy. Since the 2008 crisis, there has been increasing interest in using ideas from complexity theory to make sense of economic and financial markets. Concepts, such as tipping points, networks, contagion, feedback, and resilience have entered the financial and regulatory lexicon, but actual use of complexity models and results remains at an early stage. Recent insights and techniques offer potential for better monitoring and management of highly interconnected economic and financial systems and, thus, may help anticipate and manage future crises.

Complexity theory and financial regulation
BY STEFANO BATTISTON, J. DOYNE FARMER, ANDREAS FLACHE, DIEGO GARLASCHELLI, ANDREW G. HALDANE, HANS HEESTERBEEK, CARS HOMMES, CARLO JAEGER, ROBERT MAY, MARTEN SCHEFFER

Science  19 Feb 2016:
Vol. 351, Issue 6275, pp. 818-819
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aad0299

See on science.sciencemag.org

27
Feb
16

Networks of plants: how to measure similarity in vegetable species

See on Scoop.itPapers

Despite the common misconception of nearly static organisms, plants do interact continuously with the environment and with each other. It is fair to assume that during their evolution they developed particular features to overcome problems and to exploit possibilities from environment. In this paper we introduce various quantitative measures based on recent advancements in complex network theory that allow to measure the effective similarities of various species. By using this approach on the similarity in fruit-typology ecological traits we obtain a clear plant classification in a way similar to traditional taxonomic classification. This result is not trivial, since a similar analysis done on the basis of diaspore morphological properties do not provide any clear parameter to classify plants species. Complex network theory can then be used in order to determine which feature amongst many can be used to distinguish scope and possibly evolution of plants. Future uses of this approach range from functional classification to quantitative determination of plant communities in nature.

Networks of plants: how to measure similarity in vegetable species
Gianna Vivaldo, Elisa Masi, Camilla Pandolfi, Stefano Mancuso, Guido Caldarelli

http://arxiv.org/abs/1602.05887

See on arxiv.org

26
Feb
16

The Importance of Timing in Behavioral Economics

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

The best comedians have the best timing. Just listen to Louis CK, or Woody Allen in his youth doing stand-up. Top performers – be they musicians or politicians – have an innate sense of timing. 

For marketers, this is worth bearing in mind. While we might all understand the importance of timing, many of us tend to focus on the “what” and the “how” but not as much on the “when”. That’s especially true in the era of personalization that we’re entering, where data allows us to know so much about consumers. Knowing shoppers’ habits and preferences, their geography and social connections, gives us the opportunity to craft precisely, even uncannily, tailored messages. 

But this can backfire for all sorts of reasons, and timing is one of them. I’ve spoken about how important this is in the context of the consumer decision journey, and how critical it is to be clear about what phase a shopper is in on that journey. New insights about two key consumer mindsets – abstract and concrete – show how a specifically tailored message delivered at the wrong time can actually reduce conversion rates compared to a generic message. You can get more details in the piece we recently published (Wired for impact), but the short of it is: when consumers are in abstract mindsets, they listen to broad and high-level appeals; when they are in concrete mindsets, they listen to specific and practical appeals. If the right message hits at the wrong time, at best it won’t be heard, wasting money; at worst, it could have adverse effects, making companies seem out of touch. (You can register for the Behavioral Economics Summit jointly hosted by Yale and McKinsey on October 21-22 will take a deeper look at this issue).

See on linkedin.com

26
Feb
16

How Nazi’s Defense of “Just Following Orders” Plays Out in the Mind

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

In a 1962 letter, as a last-ditch effort for clemency, Holocaust organizer Adolf Eichmann wrote that he and other low-level officers were “forced to serve as mere instruments,” shifting the responsibility for the deaths of millions of Jews to his superiors. The “just following orders” defense, made famous in the post-WWII Nuremberg trials, featured heavily in Eichmann’s court hearings.

But that same year Stanley Milgram, a Yale University psychologist, conducted a series of famous experiments that tested whether “ordinary” folks would inflict harm on another person after following orders from an authoritative figure. Shockingly, the results suggested any human was capable of a heart of darkness.

Milgram’s research tackled whether a person could be coerced into behaving heinously, but new research released Thursday offers one explanation as to why.Modern-day Milgram experiment shows that people obeying commands feel less responsible for their actions.

See on scientificamerican.com

26
Feb
16

The Power of Embracing Uncertainty

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Author Jamie Holmes explains the value of not knowing

Moments of confusion can be pretty memorable, and not in a good way. How is this thing supposed to work? What is the teacher’s point? Where am I, and how do I get to where I am going? But confusion is greatly underrated, argues the journalist Jamie Holmes in his new book, “Nonsense.” Naturally, it is good to understand. Yet, Holmes writes, our discomfort with not knowing can lead us astray — to bad solutions, or to brilliant options never spotted. If we could learn to embrace uncertainty, we’d all be better off — and better prepared for modern life. Holmes answered questions from Mind Matters editor Gareth Cook.

See on scientificamerican.com

26
Feb
16

Mediators and Moderators of Normative Reductionism: Towards a Testimonial Approach to Expertise in Legal Inquiry

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

By Suryapratim Roy in European Studies and Jurisprudence. 

Abstract 

: There has been an increasing interest in making legal decision-making and scholarship scientific or inter-disciplinary, without there being any interrogation of how or why this should be done. This has resulted in polarised views of the importance of science on one hand, and the primacy of democracy on the other. Such polarisation is not helpful primarily because both ‘science’ and ‘democracy’ remain unintelligible to those who do not have access to the particular epistemology that supports their usage. In this article, I seek to reconceptualise the conflict between democracy and science as the association of legal decision-makers and scholars with expert inquiry. I further conceptualise such association as a process that involves normative reductionism of testimonial exchange. Despite a claim to ‘a culture of justification’ in legal systems such as the European Union, the process of normative reductionism is essentially arbitrary. I seek to articulate a framework where this process may be approached in a disciplined manner, concentrating on the role of mediation and moderation of expert knowledge.

See on academia.edu




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