Archivio per marzo 2016

30
Mar
16

Understanding complexity through games and simulations

See on Scoop.itCxAnnouncements

In order to improve our intuitive understanding of the complex dynamics in human economy, sociology and the life sciences, a depository of games and educational simulations is being expanded at http://www.bcv.cee.usb.ve/juegos.php (a special multilingual website sponsored by the Central Bank of Venezuela and the University Simon Bolivar). Links to appropriate resources, submission of new material to the site, and suggestions and recommendations for its improvement are requested. The website will serve, among others, UNESCO-Unitwin-CD-DC educational activities. Contact kjaffe@usb.ve

See on bcv.cee.usb.ve

26
Mar
16

Distorsioni cognitive nei processi valutativi: quali sono?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Tutti attivano delle distorsioni cognitive quando si relazionano con gli altri e conoscere quali sono può aiutare ad esserne consapevoli.Nessuno di noi è immune dalle distorsioni cognitive, tuttavia, essere consapevoli della loro esistenza può aiutare; una generica componente delle distorsioni cognitive è presente infatti in qualsiasi giudizio, in quanto esso è legato ad un fattore percettivo e dunque ad una visione della realtà filtrata soggettivamente da chi valuta. 

See on stateofmind.it

26
Mar
16

Terrorists Can Cause a Recession with Money Anxiety

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Acts of terror promote economic uncertainty and financial anxiety in people, who instinctively react by reducing spending. A mere 5 percent reduction in personal consumption brought by fear of terrorism is enough to push the U.S. economy into the next recession by lowering Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 3.5 percent. Acts of terror promote economic uncertainty and financial anxiety in people, who instinctively react by reducing spending. A 5 percent reduction in personal consumption, which makes up nearly 70 percent of the U.S. economy, will decrease Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 3.5 percent or negative 1.4 percent based on the 2015 third quarter GDP of 2.1 percent. Terrorism impacts the economy in two distinct ways. The first is the immediate impact on commerce right after a terror attack. The November 2015 terror attack in Paris de facto paralyzed commerce in parts of Paris, and later on in the entire city of Brussels in Belgium, for a few days. Repeated economic disruptions like these can have severe economic impact on local and national economies.

See on linkedin.com

26
Mar
16

Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Abstract People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. Across 4 studies, the authors found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability. Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd. Several analyses linked this miscalibration to deficits in metacognitive skill, or the capacity to distinguish accuracy from error. Paradoxically, improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities.

See on gagne.homedns.org

23
Mar
16

The thing that matters most about coffee is the temperature at which you drink it – Decision Science News

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

We experimented with every aspect of making coffee. What we found surprised us.

Over here at Decision Science News, we like Engineering All The Things. Accordingly, in an obsessive coffee phase, we acquired: A Coffee Maker that lets us set the exact brewing temperature A Digital Thermometer that lets us measure drinking temperature A Digital Scale that lets us weigh the grams A Coffee Grinder that lets us set the coarseness of the grind If you want to experiment, knock yourself out. What the figure above shows is that something around 55 grams of coffee per liter of water is considered ideal, but you can play around in the 50 to 65 grams / liter range. It’s harder to set where you want to be on the red lines without expensive equipment, but generally as you grind the coffee finer and brew longer you move up and to the right.

See on decisionsciencenews.com

21
Mar
16

Ratings revisited: Textual analysis for better risk management | McKinsey & Company

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Textual data from analysts’ reports to blog posts can help banks enhance their credit-risk models.

Most banks use credit-rating models to help them make decisions about lending to companies. Such models are indeed a requirement for banks using Basel II’s internal-ratings-based approach. But these models often have significant shortcomings. First, they are frequently backward-looking. Second, they rely on borrowers’ formal financial reporting, which means that data are always at least 6 months old; toward the end of the fiscal year, data are nearly 18 months old. Third, qualitative assessments of borrowers are often simplistic. And finally, many banks rely on their credit-rating models to provide both a current snapshot and a longer-term view, with the result that they do neither well. Textual information can help banks overcome some of these challenges and improve their credit-risk assessment, in particular their approach to qualitative assessment. This information includes professionally produced content such as analysts’ reports and business journalism, as well as informal texts such as blogs and posts on social networks. Compared with the financial information available about small and midsize enterprises (SMEs) or corporates, the amount of textual content about companies is immense and provides a wealth of information. News articles describe the latest developments of companies; analysts’ reports provide insightful analyses on companies’ strategies, competitive positioning, and outlook; product ratings on online-shopping sites provide unfiltered views of customer satisfaction; and microblogs such as Twitter distribute the latest news (and sometimes gossip) with unprecedented speed.

See on mckinsey.com

15
Mar
16

Neuroscienze: come scopre gli errori il nostro cervello? – Galileo

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

La ricerca della Fondazione Santa Lucia e della Sapienza ha analizzato i segnali elettroncefalografici con cui il cervello riconosce gli errori

See on galileonet.it

15
Mar
16

Le ragioni del cervello altruista – Galileo

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Siamo generosi perché ci immedesimiamo nell’altro o perché stiamo ricambiando un favore? Se possiamo mascherare le intenzioni con i gesti, non così con l’attività cerebrale.

See on galileonet.it

15
Mar
16

The default heuristic in strategic decision making: When is it optimal to choose the default without investing in information search?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Abstract Many studies have shown that decision makers have a tendency to choose the default or standard action among several possible actions. The article develops a model to explore under what conditions it is optimal for a firm facing a strategic decision problem to choose the default action without investing in obtaining more information that allows a more accurate decision. The model shows that the strategy to follow the default without additional information (“the default heuristic”) is more likely to be optimal when the cost of obtaining information is higher, and when the variation in possible outcomes is lower. The model also analyzes the optimal level of information search, showing that if the firm chooses to obtain information at all, it will invest in more accurate information when the cost of obtaining information is lower and when the variation in possible outcomes is lower.

See on sciencedirect.com

15
Mar
16

Trust or not: Heuristics for making trust-based choices in HR management

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

Abstract The present two studies examine how the participants (i.e., 150 managers) make trust-based employee selection in hypothetical situations, based on five cues of trustworthiness derived from previous surveys. In Study 1, each executive participant is presented with a pair of candidates with different cue profiles so that the choice would favor one of them based upon each of the four following heuristics: Franklin’s rule, likelihood expectancy, take-the-best (TTB), and minimum requirement (MR). Study 2 adopting a within-subject design jointly compares the four heuristics. The results show that simple heuristics (MR and TTB) outperform the more complex strategies (Franklin’s rule and likelihood expectancy) in their predictive accuracy. The MR heuristic, a heuristic tallying the frequency of passes against a set of minimal rather than optimal or satisfactory requirements, performs even better than the TTB heuristic, particularly when the number of the cues identified as MRs is small.

See on sciencedirect.com




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