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Abbiamo fin qui visto come la razionalità dell’uomo risulta essere una razionalità limitata, e abbiamo altresì potuto osservare come questa limitazione sia spesso alla base di quelli che possiamo chiamare “tunnel della mente” …
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Ed ecco così che per il mezzo di una semplice impressione personale si ritorna al cuore della tematica simoniana della razionalità limitata: prendere decisioni ottime costa a volte molto di più che prendere decisioni solo …
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La teoria neoclassica vedeva gli agenti economici come dei massimizatori perfettamente razionali: dati dei vincoli e un ordinamento di preferenze sono in grado di calcolare e scegliere sempre l’alternativa migliore. Ma la realtà è ben diversa. Ciascun agente opera in un contesto di razionalità limitata, in cui sono limitate le capacità di calcolo, lamemoria, la conoscenza informativa. Le decisioni sono fortemente dipendenti dal contesto nel quale l’agente si trova ad operare.
I bias cognitivi rappresentano errori sistematici, causati da giudizi precedentemente formatisi, ma non necessariamente connessi da legami logici.Legge dei piccoli numeri: la valutazione viene fatta sulla base di esperienze dirette.Perseveranza delle credenze e bias confirmatorio: tendenza a favorire le informazioni che confermano le nostre convinzioni.Ancoraggio e aggiustamento: si tratta della fidelizzazione ad un marchio, a un’immagine, che condiziona giudizi e scelte.Overconfidence: è la tendenza di essere più fiducioso nei giudizi di altri, di quanto sia oggettivamente giustificato.
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“One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.”
The quote above comes from the philosopher Bertrand Russell. Psychological research has now shown he was right.
The Dunning-Kruger effect is the finding that the poorest performers are the least aware of their own incompetence.
…”
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A psychological bias that illuminates how we negotiate, predict our emotions, agree a price and much more…To illustrate the anchoring effect, let’s say I ask you how old Mahatma Gandhi was when he died.
For half of you I’ll preface the question by saying: “Did he die before or after the age of 9?” For the other half I’ll say: “Did he die before or after the age of 140?”
Obviously these are not very helpful statements. Anyone who has any clue who Gandhi was will know that he was definitely older than 9; while the oldest person who ever lived was 122. So why bother making these apparently stupid statements?
Because, according to the results of a study conducted by Strack and Mussweiler (1999), these initial statements, despite being unhelpful, affect the estimates people make.
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Risk management is recognised as an essential tool to tackle the inevitable uncertainty associated with business and projects at all levels. But it frequently fails to meet expectations, with projects continuing to run late, over budget or under performing, and business not gaining the expected benefits. The evident disconnect which often occurs between strategic vision and tactical project delivery typically arises from poorly defined project objectives and inadequate attention to the proactive management of risks that could affect those objectives. One of the main failings in the traditional approach to risk management arises from a narrow focus on the downside, restricted to the technical or operational field, addressing tactical threats to processes, performance or people.
This shortcoming can be overcome by widening the scope of risk management to encompass both strategic risks and upside opportunities, creating an integrated approach which can bridge the gap between strategy and tactics. Integrated risk management addresses risks across a variety of levels in the organisation, including strategy and tactics, and covering both opportunity and threat. Effective implementation of integrated risk management can produce a number of benefits to the organisation which are not available from the typical limited-scope risk process. This paper explores how to expand risk management to deliver strategic advantage while retaining its use as a tactical tool.
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The generally perceived increase in political polarization in the US in recent years, prompted a team of psychological scientists (Fernbach et al) at the Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado, Boulder, to explore some of the possible factors contributing to this increase in extreme/polarizing politics.
“We wanted to know how it’s possible that people can maintain such strong positions on issues that are so complex — such as macroeconomics, health care, foreign relations — and yet seem to be so ill-informed about those issues,” said Philip Fernbach, lead researcher on the study.
Read more at http://planetsave.com/2013/05/20/extreme-political-views-caused-by-the-illusion-of-understanding/#Gzu50Q1XvAGRIUqF.99
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