21
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Daniel Kahneman: Entscheiden ohne Wahrnehmungsverzerrung – Wirtschaftspsychologie aktuell

Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo und Olivier Sibony haben daher in der aktuellen Ausgabe des Harvard Businessmanager eine Checkliste zusammengestellt (S. 22-29), wie sich diese Wahrnehmungszerrungen vermeiden lassen. Diese Checkliste umfasst 12 Aktionen. Im Originalbeitrag werden diese Aktionen als Fragen formuliert und mit konkreten Fallbeispielen zu einer Preissenkungs-, Investitions- und Akquisitionsentscheidung illustriert.

Hier sollen die Aktionen in ihrer grundlegenden psychologischen Wirkrichtung kurz angerissen werden. Sie können von einer Führungskraft eingesetzt werden, die eine Entscheidungsvorlage ihres Arbeitsteams bewerten will.

Source: www.wirtschaftspsychologie-aktuell.de

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
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14

Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling

http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2F+http%3A%2F%2Fmypage.iu.edu%2F%7Ejbusemey%2Fquantum%2FBBSQP2012.pdf&embedded=true

Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling?

 

Abstract: Classical (Bayesian) probability (CP) theory has led to an influential research tradition for modeling cognitive processes.

Cognitive scientists have been trained to work with CP principles for so long that it is hard even to imagine alternative ways to formalize probabilities. However, in physics, quantum probability (QP) theory has been the dominant probabilistic approach for nearly 100 years. Could QP theory provide us with any advantages in cognitive modeling as well? Note first that both CP and QP theory share the fundamental assumption that it is possible to model cognition on the basis of formal, probabilistic principles. But why consider a QP approach? The answers are that (1) there are many well-established empirical findings (e.g., from the influential Tversky, Kahneman research tradition) that are hard to reconcile with CP principles; and (2) these same findings have natural and straightforward explanations with quantum principles. In QP theory, probabilistic assessment is often strongly context- and orderdependent, individual states can be superposition states (that are impossible to associate with specific values), and composite systems can be entangled (they cannot be decomposed into their subsystems). All these characteristics appear perplexing from a classical perspective. However, our thesis is that they provide a more accurate and powerful account of certain cognitive processes. We first introduce QP theory and illustrate its application with psychological examples. We then review empirical findings that motivate the use of quantum theory in cognitive theory, but also discuss ways in which QP and CP theories converge. Finally, we consider the implications of a QP theory approach to cognition for human rationality.

http://mypage.iu.edu/~jbusemey/quantum/BBSQP2012.pdf

Source: http

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
dic
14

Partyism by Cass R. Sunstein :: SSRN

Abstract:      
“Partyism” is a form of hostility and prejudice that operates across political lines. For example, some Republicans have an immediate aversive reaction to Democrats, and some Democrats have the same aversive reaction to Republicans, so much so that they would discriminate against them in hiring or promotion decisions, or in imposing punishment. If elected officials suffer from partyism – perhaps because their constituents do – they will devalue proposals from the opposing party and refuse to enter into agreements with its members, even if their independent assessment, freed from partyism, would be favorably disposed toward those proposals or agreements. In the United States, partyism has been rapidly growing, and it is quite pronounced – in some ways, more so than racism. It also has a series of adverse effects on governance itself, above all by making it difficult to enact desirable legislation and thus disrupting the system of separation of powers. Under circumstances of severe partyism, relatively broad delegations of authority to the executive branch, and a suitably receptive approach to the Chevron principle, have considerable appeal as ways of allowing significant social problems to be addressed. This conclusion bears on both domestic issues and foreign affairs.

Source: papers.ssrn.com

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
dic
14

UGA researchers identify decision-making center of brain | UGA Today

Athens, Ga. – Although choosing to do something because the perceived benefit outweighs the financial cost is something people do daily, little is known about what happens in the brain when a person makes these kinds of decisions. Studying how these cost-benefit decisions are made when choosing to consume alcohol, University of Georgia associate professor of psychology James MacKillop identified distinct profiles of brain activity that are present when making these decisions.

“We were interested in understanding how the brain makes decisions about drinking alcohol. Particularly, we wanted to clarify how the brain weighs the pros and cons of drinking,” said MacKillop, who directs the Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology Laboratory in the UGA Franklin College of Arts and Sciences.

Source: news.uga.edu

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
dic
14

Der Insellappen

Wer sich für den Insellappen – den Lobus insularis interessiert, muss ihn erst einmal finden: verdeckt vom Temporallappen und den Opercula – wörtlich den „Deckeln“ – des Frontal- und des Parietallappens ist er von außen nicht zu sehen. Johann Christian Reil (1759-1813) entdeckte ihn erst 1796. Nun ja, er beschrieb ihn erstmals 1796. Aber „Entdeckung“ passt so schön zu der Bezeichnung, die dem Lobus insularis im berühmten anatomischen Grundlagenwerk Gray´s Anatomy zuteil wurde: „The Island of Reil“.

Source: dasgehirn.info

Sind neurowissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse hilfreich für die Forschung über Heuristiken?

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
dic
14

Der Feind in meinem Kopf

Am Massachusetts Institute of Technology untersuchen Wissenschaftler, was sich im Hirn ändert, wenn verfeindete Menschen sich näher kommen. Interventionen bei Konflikten sollen so künftig wissenschaftlich bewertet werden können.
Die Empathie gegenüber Menschen der gegnerischen Seite hält sich in Grenzen. Wo im Gehirn der Mangel an Mitgefühl verursacht wird, steht allerdings noch nicht fest.
Auch Vorurteile gegenüber der feindlichen Gruppe spielen in Konflikten eine Rolle. Sie werden offensichtlich im Precuneus, einem Teil des Parietallappens verarbeitet.

Source: dasgehirn.info

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond

19
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14

Frontiers | Adolescent and adult risk-taking in virtual social contexts | Developmental Psychology

There is a paucity of experimental data addressing how peers influence adolescent risk-taking. Here, we examined peer effects on risky decision-making in adults and adolescents using a virtual social context that enabled experimental control over the peer “interactions.” 40 adolescents (age 11–18) and 28 adults (age 20–38) completed a risk-taking (Wheel of Fortune) task under four conditions: in private; while being observed by (fictitious) peers; and after receiving ‘risky’ or ‘safe’ advice from the peers. For high-risk gambles (but not medium-risk or even gambles), adolescents made more risky decisions under peer observation than adults. Adolescents, but not adults, tended to resist ‘safe’ advice for high-risk gambles. Although both groups tended to follow ‘risky’ advice for high-risk gambles, adults did so more than adolescents. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between the effects of peer observation and peer advice on risky decision-making.

Source: journal.frontiersin.org

See on Scoop.itBounded Rationality and Beyond




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